Wei Cheng
Publications
FinAbstain: Uncertainty-Calibrated Multimodal RAG for Selective Financial Forecasting
Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree. We present FinAbstain, a research framework for uncertainty-calibrated multimodal retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) with selective prediction. A point-in-time retriever admits only information public at the forecast timestamp and supplies modality-specific evidence to fundamental, news, technical, risk, and verification agents. Their probabilistic assessments are aggregated with retrieval relevance, evidence contradiction, repeated-sample consistency, and historical calibration statistics. Temperature scaling, isotonic regression, conformal prediction, and a proposed hybrid uncertainty score are evaluated under a common chronological protocol. A controller predicts bullish, bearish, or neutral outcomes only when uncertainty is below a validated threshold; otherwise it abstains, requests evidence, reduces exposure, or routes the case to human review. The evaluation covers one- and five-day abnormal-return direction, twenty-day volatility intervals, and abstention decisions, using accuracy, calibration, risk--coverage, citation, trading, latency, and cost metrics. To make the design auditable before a full data collection is complete, we report explicitly labeled simulated results rather than empirical claims. These results illustrate the intended hypothesis: calibrated abstention may trade coverage for lower selective error and drawdown. The contribution is a time-safe architecture, a composite uncertainty formulation, and a reproducible evaluation blueprint for evidence-grounded selective financial forecasting.
The MiniMax-M2 Series: Mini Activations Unleashing Max Real-World Intelligence
We introduce the MiniMax-M2 series, a family of Mixture-of-Experts language models built around the principle that mini activations can unleash maximum real-world intelligence. The flagship M2 contains 229.9B total parameters with only 9.8B activated per token. Designed end-to-end for agentic deployment, the M2 series rests on three components: (i) agent-driven data pipelines producing large-scale, verifiable trajectories across agentic coding and agentic cowork, each grounded in an executable workspace and an artifact-aligned reward; (ii) Forge, a scalable agent-native RL system that adapts to long-horizon agent trajectories, paired with windowed-FIFO scheduling, prefix-tree merging, inference optimization, and a clean training-inference-agent decoupling that supports both white-box and black-box agents; (iii) the latest M2.7 checkpoint takes an early step toward self-evolution -- autonomously debugging training runs and modifying its own scaffold. Across M2 through M2.7, this combination translates a mini-activation footprint into frontier-tier performance on agentic coding, deep search, office-task, and reasoning benchmarks.
Multi-Agent Procedural Graph Extraction with Structural and Logical Refinement
Automatically extracting workflows as procedural graphs from natural language is promising yet underexplored, demanding both structural validity and logical alignment. While recent large language models (LLMs) show potential for procedural graph extraction, they often produce ill-formed structures or misinterpret logical flows. We present \model{}, a multi-agent framework that formulates procedural graph extraction as a multi-round reasoning process with dedicated structural and logical refinement. The framework iterates through three stages: (1) a graph extraction phase with the graph builder agent, (2) a structural feedback phase in which a simulation agent diagnoses and explains structural defects, and (3) a logical feedback phase in which a semantic agent aligns semantics between flow logic and linguistic cues in the source text. Important feedback is prioritized and expressed in natural language, which is injected into subsequent prompts, enabling interpretable and controllable refinement. This modular design allows agents to target distinct error types without supervision or parameter updates. Experiments demonstrate that \model{} achieves substantial improvements in both structural correctness and logical consistency over strong baselines.