Guangkun Nie
Publications
CausalMoE: A Billion-Scale Multimodal Foundation Model for Granger Causal Discovery with Pattern-Routed Heterogeneous Experts
Granger Causal Discovery (GCD) is fundamental for analyzing temporal dependencies in complex systems. However, existing neural GCD methods predominantly rely on a "one-size-fits-all" paradigm, struggling to capture distribution shifts and dynamic regime changes inherent in real-world time series. This often leads to entangled representations and spurious causal graphs. In this paper, we propose CausalMoE, a billion-scale multimodal Granger causal foundation model that explicitly models patch-level heterogeneity. CausalMoE introduces a Pattern-Routed Mixture of Heterogeneous Experts, which dynamically identifies latent temporal patterns and routes patches to specialized domain experts, effectively decoupling regime-specific mechanisms from shared dynamics. To ensure interpretable graph recovery, we design a Causality-Aware Self-Attention mechanism operating across variables, yielding sparse Granger causal graphs via proximal optimization. Furthermore, CausalMoE is the first to integrate LLMs and VLMs to align numerical signals with textual and visual priors, regularizing causal estimation in complex scenarios. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalMoE establishes a new state-of-the-art on fully supervised benchmarks, while effectively generalizing to few-shot settings where traditional methods fail.
Artificial intelligence-enabled single-lead ECG for non-invasive hyperkalemia detection: development, multicenter validation, and proof-of-concept deployment
Hyperkalemia is a life-threatening electrolyte disorder that is common in patients with chronic kidney disease and heart failure, yet frequent monitoring remains difficult outside hospital settings. We developed and validated Pocket-K, a single-lead AI-ECG system initialized from the ECGFounder foundation model for non-invasive hyperkalemia screening and handheld deployment. In this multicentre observational study using routinely collected clinical ECG and laboratory data, 34,439 patients contributed 62,290 ECG--potassium pairs. Lead I data were used to fine-tune the model. Data from Peking University People's Hospital were divided into development and temporal validation sets, and data from The Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University served as an independent external validation set. Hyperkalemia was defined as venous serum potassium > 5.5 mmol/L. Pocket-K achieved AUROCs of 0.936 in internal testing, 0.858 in temporal validation, and 0.808 in external validation. For KDIGO-defined moderate-to-severe hyperkalemia (serum potassium >= 6.0 mmol/L), AUROCs increased to 0.940 and 0.861 in the temporal and external sets, respectively. External negative predictive value exceeded 99.3%. Model-predicted high risk below the hyperkalemia threshold was more common in patients with chronic kidney disease and heart failure. A handheld prototype enabled near-real-time inference, supporting future prospective evaluation in native handheld and wearable settings.
AnyECG: Evolved ECG Foundation Model for Holistic Health Profiling
Background: Artificial intelligence enabled electrocardiography (AI-ECG) has demonstrated the ability to detect diverse pathologies, but most existing models focus on single disease identification, neglecting comorbidities and future risk prediction. Although ECGFounder expanded cardiac disease coverage, a holistic health profiling model remains needed. Methods: We constructed a large multicenter dataset comprising 13.3 million ECGs from 2.98 million patients. Using transfer learning, ECGFounder was fine-tuned to develop AnyECG, a foundation model for holistic health profiling. Performance was evaluated using external validation cohorts and a 10-year longitudinal cohort for current diagnosis, future risk prediction, and comorbidity identification. Results: AnyECG demonstrated systemic predictive capability across 1172 conditions, achieving an AUROC greater than 0.7 for 306 diseases. The model revealed novel disease associations, robust comorbidity patterns, and future disease risks. Representative examples included high diagnostic performance for hyperparathyroidism (AUROC 0.941), type 2 diabetes (0.803), Crohn disease (0.817), lymphoid leukemia (0.856), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.773). Conclusion: The AnyECG foundation model provides substantial evidence that AI-ECG can serve as a systemic tool for concurrent disease detection and long-term risk prediction.