Zhangyang Qi
Publications
SocietyBench: Forecasting Counterfactual Social-World Evolution
Large language models (LLMs), and the agents built on top of them, are now benchmarked heavily on whether they can finish a task -- fix a bug, drive a browser, operate a GUI. A complementary social ability, namely how well a model understands and forecasts the way real social events unfold, has barely been measured. We introduce SocietyBench, an end-to-end benchmark that takes a one-line event topic, collects Web news and social-media posts across five platforms, distills them into a date-indexed timeline that keeps factual events and a public-opinion layer separate, and then turns every cutoff date on that timeline into an audited bank of forecasting questions. Questions are scored on two orthogonal 100-point axes: probability calibration and temporal accuracy. Before any model sees a timeline, a three-phase procedure replaces every named entity and shifts every date by a per-event constant, turning a real arc into a counterfactual social world -- structurally identical to what happened, but stripped of the surface labels a model could match against pre-training memory. On five heterogeneous events and 125 prediction points in Chinese and English editions, the strongest of six frontier LLMs reaches only 75.0 out of 100, against a trivial anchor of 50. The two axes come apart: a model can be calibration-strong but time-weak, or the reverse. Three agent frameworks built on a shared base model fail to improve on that base, and two model-free heuristics trail every LLM. Per-event gaps reach 21.4 points on a single axis, which is our main argument for evaluating on several events rather than one. All anonymized timelines, question banks, ground truth, and scoring code are released.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament
Benchmarks that measure the forecasting ability of large language models are almost always retrospective: the event has happened, the answer is somewhere on the Web, and the evaluation must defend itself against memorisation. We report the opposite design. Over the 39 days of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, six frontier LLMs -- all with extended thinking and native server-side web search -- were asked before every kickoff, one match at a time, to fill in a seven-market prediction card for all 104 matches, plus 12 group winners and a pre-tournament outright pool; no answer existed when the question was asked, so the evaluation is leakage-free by construction rather than by filtering, and the frozen archive holds 4,494 scored predictions. What the tournament establishes is a set of behaviours the six systems share. On match outcome they average 63.9%, level with backing the bookmaker's favourite -- which is in fact what they usually do. They agree with one another far more often than they are right, so a majority vote adds nothing. They under-commit to draws and to goals, and crowd their scoreline picks onto a single prototypical result. Accuracy tracks how lopsided a fixture is rather than how much is known about it: it collapses in the closest ties, where the dossiers are richest, while questions about the tournament as a whole are answered well. On this task the current generation of frontier systems is not sharply differentiated: the standings hold up at the top and the bottom across the run and churn in the middle, and the margins stay narrow throughout. The briefing dossiers, fixtures and official results are released as a benchmark, together with the scoring code.
PerceptionBench: Evaluating Atomic Visual Perception in Multimodal Large Language Models
We introduce PerceptionBench, a benchmark specifically designed to evaluate the atomic visual perception capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). Existing benchmarks often fail to isolate perception: holistic evaluations conflate perceptual errors with failures in reasoning or domain knowledge, while application-driven benchmarks only cover narrow, fragmented domains shaped by heuristic designs. To address these limitations, PerceptionBench adopts a bottom-up approach: by diagnosing the earliest failure points in the responses of frontier MLLMs across 42 existing benchmarks, we construct an error taxonomy whose perception branch defines ten atomic perceptual capabilities. Guided by this taxonomy, we construct 3,000 verified questions with short, unambiguous answers, each isolating a single capability, with difficulty stemming from perception rather than reasoning or knowledge. Benchmark results across sixteen frontier MLLMs reveal that atomic perception remains largely unsolved---no model reaches 60\% accuracy, perception-related hallucination is the weakest capability on average, and similar overall scores conceal sharply divergent capability profiles. PerceptionBench thus provides a capability-level standard for measuring and diagnosing the visual perception boundaries of MLLMs.
Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence
We introduce Kimi K3, a 2.8T parameter Mixture-of-Experts model with 104 billion activated parameters, native vision capabilities, and a 1-million-token context window. Kimi K3 is built on Kimi Delta Attention and Attention Residuals, which improve information flow across sequence length and model depth. Together with Stable LatentMoE, which effectively activates 16 of 896 routed experts per token, and refined training and data recipes, these advances yield an approximately 2.5x improvement in overall scaling efficiency over Kimi K2. Post-training highlights reinforcement learning across general, agentic, and coding domains and multiple reasoning-effort levels, enabling compositional generalization and robust long-horizon execution. At 2.8T scale, Kimi K3 is supported by infrastructure advances in multiple areas: algorithm-system co-design for KDA, perfectly balanced expert-parallel training with efficient memory management, million-token agentic RL with persistent rollout and sandbox states, and deployment innovations. Extensive evaluations show that Kimi K3 achieves frontier-level performance across long-horizon coding, agentic, knowledge, reasoning, and vision tasks. While its overall performance still trails the most powerful proprietary models, namely Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, Kimi K3 consistently outperforms other open and proprietary models evaluated in our suite. We release the full Kimi K3 model weights to facilitate future research and accelerate the broader deployment and adoption of frontier intelligence.