Ian Waudby-Smith
Publications
Confidence Horizons
Anytime-valid inference enables analysts to continuously monitor their data and stop experiments early. However, the majority of these methods incur a certain conservativeness by remaining valid on infinite time horizons. In practice, a bound on the horizon may be imposed due to budgetary, practical, or ethical constraints. In this paper, we ask the question: "Is it possible to obtain sharper large-sample anytime-valid inference by forgoing validity beyond some finite time horizon?". We provide a positive answer to this question by proposing a family of statistical objects that we call "confidence horizons". These objects can be viewed as large-sample confidence sequences on bounded time horizons, or alternatively as group sequential repeated confidence intervals with a maximal number of interim peeking times. We make explicit connections to the group sequential boundaries of Pocock [1977], O'Brien--Fleming [1979], and Wang--Tsiatis [1987]. We derive closed-form distribution functions of certain statistics which can be used to calculate the asymptotic quantiles of confidence horizons exactly, sidestepping the repeated integration typically employed in group sequential methods. We illustrate the use of confidence horizons for treatment effect estimation in sequentially randomized experiments under adaptive Neyman allocation.
Post-Training at the Edge of Detectability: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Fine-Tuning
Reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning is widely used in language model training to improve model performance on a target task while limiting drift from a reference policy. A standard way to balance this trade-off is via a KL-regularized RL objective, although this formulation does not by itself provide a principled way to set the regularization coefficient. In practice, the coefficient is typically chosen heuristically or via hyperparameter search, which can lead to unnecessary overhead in training cost or undesirable reward-retention trade-offs. We instead propose a game-theoretic framework that gives this trade-off an explicit statistical interpretation. Specifically, we study a sequential game in which an agent chooses a policy to maximize cumulative reward while a monitor observes policy outputs over time and tests for deviations from the reference policy. Although not originating from the same perspective, we show that the resulting equilibrium policy can nonetheless be expressed as the solution to a KL-regularized RL problem for an optimal regularization parameter that can be viewed as maximizing reward per unit of statistical distinguishability. Drawing on classical results from concave-convex fractional programming, we provide a principled method for learning this equilibrium coefficient via reduction to the KL-regularized RL objective, thus allowing for flexible integration into standard fine-tuning pipelines. In experiments with Qwen3-8B and Llama-3.2-1B, we demonstrate that our methods result in competitive reward-retention trade-offs in a continual learning setting, and illustrate how our framework may be used to audit API providers serving open-source models.