Mario Fritz
Publications
Certified Circuits: Stability Guarantees for Mechanistic Circuits
Understanding how neural networks arrive at their predictions is essential for debugging, auditing, and deployment. Mechanistic interpretability pursues this goal by identifying circuits - minimal subnetworks responsible for specific behaviors. However, existing circuit discovery methods are brittle: circuits depend strongly on the chosen concept dataset and often fail to transfer out-of-distribution, raising doubts whether they capture concept or dataset-specific artifacts. We introduce Certified Circuits, which provide provable stability guarantees for circuit discovery. Our framework wraps any black-box discovery algorithm with randomized data subsampling to certify that circuit component inclusion decisions are invariant to bounded edit-distance perturbations of the concept dataset. Unstable neurons are abstained from, yielding circuits that are more compact and more accurate. On ImageNet and OOD datasets, certified circuits achieve up to 91% higher accuracy while using 45% fewer neurons, and remain reliable where baselines degrade. Certified Circuits puts circuit discovery on formal ground by producing mechanistic explanations that are provably stable and better aligned with the target concept. Code will be released soon!
Scalable Delphi: Large Language Models for Structured Risk Estimation
Quantitative risk assessment in high-stakes domains relies on structured expert elicitation to estimate unobservable properties. The gold standard - the Delphi method - produces calibrated, auditable judgments but requires months of coordination and specialist time, placing rigorous risk assessment out of reach for most applications. We investigate whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as scalable proxies for structured expert elicitation. We propose Scalable Delphi, adapting the classical protocol for LLMs with diverse expert personas, iterative refinement, and rationale sharing. Because target quantities are typically unobservable, we develop an evaluation framework based on necessary conditions: calibration against verifiable proxies, sensitivity to evidence, and alignment with human expert judgment. We evaluate in the domain of AI-augmented cybersecurity risk, using three capability benchmarks and independent human elicitation studies. LLM panels achieve strong correlations with benchmark ground truth (Pearson r=0.87-0.95), improve systematically as evidence is added, and align with human expert panels - in one comparison, closer to a human panel than the two human panels are to each other. This demonstrates that LLM-based elicitation can extend structured expert judgment to settings where traditional methods are infeasible, reducing elicitation time from months to minutes.