Nathaniel D. Daw
Publications
The Computational Basis of Confidence in Large Language Models
Reliable confidence -- the probability that a model's own answer is correct -- is essential for the trustworthy deployment of language models. Existing work has largely evaluated confidence by how well it predicts correctness and whether it is calibrated, leaving open a more fundamental question: what does the confidence signal itself represent? Answer logits may reflect a latent decision variable sufficient to compute normative confidence, or instead a heuristic preference signal that combines the available evidence in a non-Bayesian manner. We address this using statistical decision confidence (SDC), a normative framework from computational neuroscience. Treating the answer-logit difference (LD) as a candidate readout of the latent decision variable, we test the qualitative signatures predicted by SDC. Across three perceptual discrimination tasks and a memory-based decision task, spanning three multimodal non-reasoning models and one reasoning model, LD satisfied these signatures -- including the diagnostic correct/error folded-X pattern -- showing that, in these settings, answer logits behave as monotonic readouts of a latent decision variable rather than heuristic preference scores. In complex visual reasoning, LD continued to predict correctness beyond objective task difficulty, but the full geometric signatures of SDC were absent, illustrating the current boundary of the framework when explicit normative process models are unavailable. These results provide a computational account of confidence in multimodal language models, delineate when answer logits behave as readouts of a latent decision variable, and establish SDC as a unifying framework for studying confidence across biological and artificial intelligence.
ATLAS: Active Theory Learning for Automated Science
Advancing scientific understanding through mechanistic modeling requires posing the right experimental questions to yield maximally informative data. To automate this pursuit within cognitive science, we introduce ATLAS (Active Theory Learning for Automated Science), an active learning framework for the data-driven discovery of interpretable behavioral models. ATLAS iterates between generating mechanistic hypotheses--instantiated as a diverse ensemble of sparse neural networks (Disentangled RNNs)--and designing experiments that optimally distinguish between them. We test this approach on the problem of recovering reinforcement learning agents from their behavior in bandit tasks. ATLAS designs varied sequences of qualitatively novel experiments with temporal structure tailored to underlying agent characteristics. The models trained on these experiments are evaluated against a comprehensive set of metrics for mechanistic modeling that capture behavioral, structural, and computational similarity. ATLAS achieves a 5-10x improvement in sample efficiency across all metrics compared to random experimentation, and its performance is further validated against expert-designed experiments derived from literature. These in silico results showcase ATLAS's potential to accelerate human-interpretable insights in cognitive science and other domains where scientific inquiry relies on discovering mechanistic models.