Arthur Conmy
Publications
How do LLMs Compute Verbal Confidence
Verbal confidence -- prompting LLMs to state their confidence as a number or category -- is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from black-box models. However, how LLMs internally generate such scores remains unknown. We address two questions: first, when confidence is computed - just-in-time when requested, or automatically during answer generation and cached for later retrieval; and second, what verbal confidence represents - token log-probabilities, or a richer evaluation of answer quality? Focusing on Gemma 3 27B and Qwen 2.5 7B, we provide convergent evidence for cached retrieval. Activation steering, patching, noising, and swap experiments reveal that confidence representations emerge at answer-adjacent positions before appearing at the verbalization site. Attention blocking pinpoints the information flow: confidence is gathered from answer tokens, cached at the first post-answer position, then retrieved for output. Critically, linear probing and variance partitioning reveal that these cached representations explain substantial variance in verbal confidence beyond token log-probabilities, suggesting a richer answer-quality evaluation rather than a simple fluency readout. These findings demonstrate that verbal confidence reflects automatic, sophisticated self-evaluation -- not post-hoc reconstruction -- with implications for understanding metacognition in LLMs and improving calibration.
Fluid Representations in Reasoning Models
Reasoning language models, which generate long chains of thought, dramatically outperform non-reasoning language models on abstract problems. However, the internal model mechanisms that allow this superior performance remain poorly understood. We present a mechanistic analysis of how QwQ-32B - a model specifically trained to produce extensive reasoning traces - process abstract structural information. On Mystery Blocksworld - a semantically obfuscated planning domain - we find that QwQ-32B gradually improves its internal representation of actions and concepts during reasoning. The model develops abstract encodings that focus on structure rather than specific action names. Through steering experiments, we establish causal evidence that these adaptations improve problem solving: injecting refined representations from successful traces boosts accuracy, while symbolic representations can replace many obfuscated encodings with minimal performance loss. We find that one of the factors driving reasoning model performance is in-context refinement of token representations, which we dub Fluid Reasoning Representations.
Building Production-Ready Probes For Gemini
Frontier language model capabilities are improving rapidly. We thus need stronger mitigations against bad actors misusing increasingly powerful systems. Prior work has shown that activation probes may be a promising misuse mitigation technique, but we identify a key remaining challenge: probes fail to generalize under important production distribution shifts. In particular, we find that the shift from short-context to long-context inputs is difficult for existing probe architectures. We propose several new probe architectures that handle this long-context distribution shift. We evaluate these probes in the cyber-offensive domain, testing their robustness against various production-relevant distribution shifts, including multi-turn conversations, long context prompts, and adaptive red teaming. Our results demonstrate that while our novel architectures address context length, a combination of architecture choice and training on diverse distributions is required for broad generalization. Additionally, we show that pairing probes with prompted classifiers achieves optimal accuracy at a low cost due to the computational efficiency of probes. These findings have informed the successful deployment of misuse mitigation probes in user-facing instances of Gemini, Google's frontier language model. Finally, we find early positive results using AlphaEvolve to automate improvements in both probe architecture search and adaptive red teaming, showing that automating some AI safety research is already possible.