Federico Torrielli
Publications
The Arbiter Agent: Continually Monitoring Multi-Agent Conversations to Detect Emergent Misalignment
As AI systems built from multiple language-model agents become more common, they are increasingly used to make decisions together: discussing, negotiating, and acting on shared tasks. While individual agents may appear well-aligned when tested on their own, problems can arise from how they interact with one another. We introduce the Arbiter, an agent designed to monitor multi-agent conversations in real time and identify which participants may be behaving in misaligned ways. The Arbiter operates under a limited "inspection budget", meaning it must decide carefully how to use its resources. As it observes a conversation step by step, it can choose to wait, question a participant, examine internal information such as system prompts or reasoning traces, or log concerning behavior. At the end, it produces a report identifying the likely source of misalignment. We evaluate the Arbiter across five conversation conditions, ranging from risky financial advice model organisms to evaluation-aware and colluding agents, we test five tool configurations of increasing capability and two backbone models. We find that the Arbiter reliably detects misaligned agents well before the end of the conversation, with active inspection tools improving both detection accuracy and speed. Weight-induced misalignment proves hardest to detect, while instruction-induced misalignment is identified reliably even under passive observation. The logging tool exhibits a dual effect, improving recall at the cost of precision. These results suggest that continual, budget-aware monitoring can effectively catch misalignment, and that overseeing multi-agent systems may require treating the auditor as an active participant in the process. The code is available at https://github.com/aisilab/arbiter.
Confidence and Calibration of Activation Oracles for Reliable Interpretation of Language Model Internals
Activation oracles aim to make the activations of other models legible to humans and yield promising results compared to white-box interpretability techniques. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the natural-language outputs of such activation oracles is so far understudied. Here, we investigate 6 different methods for estimating the confidence of activation oracles and evaluate how well-calibrated their confidence scores are. Our experiments on 6,000 samples per oracle (varying verbalizer and context prompts) reveal that bootstrap mode frequency is the best-calibrated method among those tested (ECE 5.7% vs. 25.5% for the answer-word log-probability on Qwen3-8B; 10.3% vs. 13.1% on Qwen3.6-27B), and that the log-prob baseline can serve as a fast triage signal at a fraction of the cost. Code and the patched trainer are available at https://github.com/federicotorrielli/probabilistic_activation_oracles.
The Moltbook Files: A Harmless Slopocalypse or Humanity's Last Experiment
Moltbook is a Reddit-like platform where OpenClaw agents post, comment, and vote at scale - a so far unprecedented incident that comes with serious safety concerns. With the aim of studying emergent behavior in populations, we release the Moltbook Files, a dataset of 232k posts and 2.2M comments covering the platform's first 12 days, processed through a pipeline to identify and remove Personally-Identifiable Information (PII). We analyze community structure, authorship, lexical properties, sentiment, topics, semantic geometry, and comment interaction. To understand how Moltbook data could affect the next generation of language models, we fine-tune Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct on Moltbook Files with three adaptation levels. Our PII pipeline reveals that agents post API keys, passwords, BIP39 seed phrases on Moltbook, a publicly indexed platform. The overall sentiment is mostly neutral and mildly positive (66.6% neutral, 19.5% positive) and shows a tendency for self-referential linking. We find that fine-tuning on Moltbook data reduces truthfulness from 0.366 to 0.187. However, a model fine-tuned on a size-matched Reddit dataset produces a comparable decrease. Moltbook thus seems to be more of a harmless slopocalypse. However, tail risks remain, including agent affordances, contamination of future crawls through self-links, and potential transfer of traits to the next generation of language models. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of control baselines in emergent misalignment evaluations.