Rui Qian
Publications
PAMod: Modeling Cyclical Shifts via Phase-Amplitude Modulation for Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting
Real-world time series forecasting faces the fundamental challenge of non-stationary statistical properties, including shifts in mean and variance over time. While reversible instance normalization (RevIN) has shown promise by stationarizing inputs and denormalizing outputs, it relies on the strong assumption that historical and future distributions remain identical. We observe that in many practical applications, distribution shifts follow cyclical patterns that correlate with periodic positions (e.g., seasonal and holiday volatility). To this end, we propose PAMod, a lightweight yet powerful framework that models cyclical distribution shifts via Phase-Amplitude Modulation in the normalized feature space. PAMod learns periodic embeddings to modulate representations: phase modulation captures mean shifts, while amplitude modulation adapts to variance changes. Crucially, we prove mathematically that modulating in normalized space is equivalent to applying dynamic denormalization, offering an elegant unification of distribution adaptation and representation learning. Extensive experiments on twelve real-world benchmarks demonstrate that PAMod achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer computational resources. Furthermore, our modulation mechanism, as a novel plug-and-play technique, can improve existing time-series forecasting methods with simple integration.
CoT2-Meta: Budgeted Metacognitive Control for Test-Time Reasoning
Recent test-time reasoning methods improve performance by generating more candidate chains or searching over larger reasoning trees, but they typically lack explicit control over when to expand, what to prune, how to repair, and when to abstain. We introduce CoT2-Meta, a training-free metacognitive reasoning framework that combines object-level chain-of-thought generation with meta-level control over partial reasoning trajectories. The framework integrates four components: strategy-conditioned thought generation, tree-structured search, an online process oracle for step-level reasoning evaluation, and a meta-controller that allocates computation through expansion, pruning, repair, stopping, and fallback decisions. Under matched inference budgets, CoT2-Meta consistently outperforms strong single-path, sampling-based, and search-based baselines, including ReST-MCTS. On the default backbone, it achieves 92.8 EM on MATH, 90.4 accuracy on GPQA, 98.65 EM on GSM8K, 75.8 accuracy on BBEH, 85.6 accuracy on MMMU-Pro, and 48.8 accuracy on HLE, with gains over the strongest non-CoT2-Meta baseline of +3.6, +5.2, +1.15, +2.0, +4.3, and +4.3 points, respectively. Beyond these core results, the framework remains effective across a broader 15-benchmark suite spanning knowledge and QA, multi-hop reasoning, coding, and out-of-distribution evaluation. Additional analyses show better compute scaling, improved calibration, stronger selective prediction, targeted repair behavior, and consistent gains across backbone families. These results suggest that explicit metacognitive control is a practical design principle for reliable and compute-efficient test-time reasoning systems.