Lele Cao
Publications
Be Wary of Your Time Series Preprocessing
Normalization and scaling are fundamental preprocessing steps in time series modeling, yet their role in Transformer-based models remains underexplored from a theoretical perspective. In this work, we present the first formal analysis of how different normalization strategies, specifically instance-based and global scaling, impact the expressivity of Transformer-based architectures for time series representation learning. We propose a novel expressivity framework tailored to time series, which quantifies a model's ability to distinguish between similar and dissimilar inputs in the representation space. Using this framework, we derive theoretical bounds for two widely used normalization methods: Standard and Min-Max scaling. Our analysis reveals that the choice of normalization strategy can significantly influence the model's representational capacity, depending on the task and data characteristics. We complement our theory with empirical validation on classification and forecasting benchmarks using multiple Transformer-based models. Our results show that no single normalization method consistently outperforms others, and in some cases, omitting normalization entirely leads to superior performance. These findings highlight the critical role of preprocessing in time series learning and motivate the need for more principled normalization strategies tailored to specific tasks and datasets.
Preventing the Collapse of Peer Review Requires Verification-First AI
This paper argues that AI-assisted peer review should be verification-first rather than review-mimicking. We propose truth-coupling, i.e. how tightly venue scores track latent scientific truth, as the right objective for review tools. We formalize two forces that drive a phase transition toward proxy-sovereign evaluation: verification pressure, when claims outpace verification capacity, and signal shrinkage, when real improvements become hard to separate from noise. In a minimal model that mixes occasional high-fidelity checks with frequent proxy judgment, we derive an explicit coupling law and an incentive-collapse condition under which rational effort shifts from truth-seeking to proxy optimization, even when current decisions still appear reliable. These results motivate actions for tool builders and program chairs: deploy AI as an adversarial auditor that generates auditable verification artifacts and expands effective verification bandwidth, rather than as a score predictor that amplifies claim inflation.
Preventing the Collapse of Peer Review Requires Verification-First AI
This paper argues that AI-assisted peer review should be verification-first rather than review-mimicking. We propose truth-coupling, i.e. how tightly venue scores track latent scientific truth, as the right objective for review tools. We formalize two forces that drive a phase transition toward proxy-sovereign evaluation: verification pressure, when claims outpace verification capacity, and signal shrinkage, when real improvements become hard to separate from noise. In a minimal model that mixes occasional high-fidelity checks with frequent proxy judgment, we derive an explicit coupling law and an incentive-collapse condition under which rational effort shifts from truth-seeking to proxy optimization, even when current decisions still appear reliable. These results motivate actions for tool builders and program chairs: deploy AI as an adversarial auditor that generates auditable verification artifacts and expands effective verification bandwidth, rather than as a score predictor that amplifies claim inflation.