Yanji He
Publications
IDEA: An Interpretable and Editable Decision-Making Framework for LLMs via Verbal-to-Numeric Calibration
Large Language Models are increasingly deployed for decision-making, yet their adoption in high-stakes domains remains limited by miscalibrated probabilities, unfaithful explanations, and inability to incorporate expert knowledge precisely. We propose IDEA, a framework that extracts LLM decision knowledge into an interpretable parametric model over semantically meaningful factors. Through joint learning of verbal-to-numerical mappings and decision parameters via EM, correlated sampling that preserves factor dependencies, and direct parameter editing with mathematical guarantees, IDEA produces calibrated probabilities while enabling quantitative human-AI collaboration. Experiments across five datasets show IDEA with Qwen-3-32B (78.6%) outperforms DeepSeek R1 (68.1%) and GPT-5.2 (77.9%), achieving perfect factor exclusion and exact calibration -- precision unattainable through prompting alone. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/leonbig/IDEA.
Thinking Fast, Thinking Wrong: Intuitiveness Modulates LLM Counterfactual Reasoning in Policy Evaluation
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for causal and counterfactual reasoning, yet their reliability in real-world policy evaluation remains underexplored. We construct a benchmark of 40 empirical policy evaluation cases drawn from economics and social science, each grounded in peer-reviewed evidence and classified by intuitiveness -- whether the empirical finding aligns with (obvious), is unclear relative to (ambiguous), or contradicts (counter-intuitive) common prior expectations. We evaluate four frontier LLMs across five prompting strategies with 2,400 experimental trials and analyze the results using mixed-effects logistic regression. Our findings reveal three key results: (1) a chain-of-thought (CoT) paradox, where chain-of-thought prompting dramatically improves performance on obvious cases but this benefit is nearly eliminated on counter-intuitive ones (interaction OR = 0.053, $p < 0.001$); (2) intuitiveness as the dominant factor, explaining more variance than model choice or prompting strategy (ICC = 0.537); and (3) a knowledge-reasoning dissociation, where citation-based familiarity is unrelated to accuracy ($p = 0.53$), suggesting models possess relevant knowledge but fail to reason with it when findings contradict intuition. We frame these results through the lens of dual-process theory (System 1 vs. System 2) and argue that current LLMs' "slow thinking" may be little more than "slow talking" -- they produce the form of deliberative reasoning without the substance.