Zhen-Qiang Zhou
Publications
To See Far, Look Close: Evolutionary Forecasting for Long-term Time Series
The prevailing Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm dominates Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) by forcing models to predict the entire future horizon in a single forward pass. While efficient, this rigid coupling of output and evaluation horizons necessitates computationally prohibitive re-training for every target horizon. In this work, we uncover a counter-intuitive optimization anomaly: models trained on short horizons-when coupled with our proposed Evolutionary Forecasting (EF) paradigm-significantly outperform those trained directly on long horizons. We attribute this success to the mitigation of a fundamental optimization pathology inherent in DF, where conflicting gradients from distant futures cripple the learning of local dynamics. We establish EF as a unified generative framework, proving that DF is merely a degenerate special case of EF. Extensive experiments demonstrate that a singular EF model surpasses task-specific DF ensembles across standard benchmarks and exhibits robust asymptotic stability in extreme extrapolation. This work propels a paradigm shift in LTSF: moving from passive Static Mapping to autonomous Evolutionary Reasoning.
TSPO: Breaking the Double Homogenization Dilemma in Multi-turn Search Policy Optimization
Multi-turn tool-integrated reasoning enables Large Language Models (LLMs) to solve complex tasks through iterative information retrieval. However, current reinforcement learning (RL) frameworks for search-augmented reasoning predominantly rely on sparse outcome-level rewards, leading to a "Double Homogenization Dilemma." This manifests as (1) Process homogenization, where the thinking, reasoning, and tooling involved in generation are ignored. (2) Intra-group homogenization, coarse-grained outcome rewards often lead to inefficiencies in intra-group advantage estimation with methods like Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) during sampling. To address this, we propose Turn-level Stage-aware Policy Optimization (TSPO). TSPO introduces the First-Occurrence Latent Reward (FOLR) mechanism, allocating partial rewards to the step where the ground-truth answer first appears, thereby preserving process-level signals and increasing reward variance within groups without requiring external reward models or any annotations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TSPO significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving average performance gains of 24% and 13.6% on Qwen2.5-3B and 7B models, respectively.