Veronika Thost
Publications
Oracle-Budgeted Molecular Optimization with Short-Term Graph Memory
Molecular optimization is commonly performed under a limited oracle budget, which makes deciding what to evaluate as important as deciding what to generate. We introduce short-term graph memory, a plug-in module that preserves the generator architecture and native update rule while learning from previously evaluated molecules to prioritize subsequent oracle queries. The module maintains an online graph neural surrogate that pre-screens each round's candidate pool, so the fixed oracle budget is spent on molecules with higher predicted utility. Applied to a fragment-based generator on a standard molecular optimization benchmark, it improves the mean top-10 score at no extra oracle cost and never falls behind the base on any oracle; the gain extends to all four generators we tested at a tight budget of one thousand calls. We then analyze how surrogate-guided selection interacts with the exploration and exploitation behavior of different generators. Its benefit at larger budgets is consistent with two properties of the backbone: how broadly it searches, and how effectively its native search already exploits oracle feedback. We provide a simple way to spend a fixed oracle budget more selectively, and evidence on which generators benefit from it.
Complementing Self-Consistency with Cross-Model Disagreement for Uncertainty Quantification
Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect responses, and uncertainty quantification is one potential solution to more robust usage. Recent works routinely rely on self-consistency to estimate aleatoric uncertainty (AU), yet this proxy collapses when models are overconfident and produce the same incorrect answer across samples. We analyze this regime and show that cross-model semantic disagreement is higher on incorrect answers precisely when AU is low. Motivated by this, we introduce an epistemic uncertainty (EU) term that operates in the black-box access setting: EU uses only generated text from a small, scale-matched ensemble and is computed as the gap between inter-model and intra-model sequence-semantic similarity. We then define total uncertainty (TU) as the sum of AU and EU. In a comprehensive study across five 7-9B instruction-tuned models and ten long-form tasks, TU improves ranking calibration and selective abstention relative to AU, and EU reliably flags confident failures where AU is low. We further characterize when EU is most useful via agreement and complementarity diagnostics.