Zifeng Ding
Publications
WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning
Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information. Yet evaluating whether agents genuinely forecast requires more than final-answer accuracy: a model may be correct by recalling memorized training facts, citing fabricated evidence, or producing an unsupported causal story. We present WorldReasoner, an evaluation framework for temporally valid event forecasting. Each task gives an agent a resolved forecasting question, a simulated forecast date, and access only to evidence available before that date; after resolution, the framework scores the submitted probability, cited evidence, and optional causal event graph. WorldReasoner reports three complementary axes: outcome quality against resolved answers, evidence quality over cited sources, and reasoning quality against post-resolution hindsight graphs. The benchmark is built by an agentic construction pipeline that generates forecasting questions, collects time-stamped evidence, and builds hindsight reference graphs at scale, yielding 345 resolved tasks derived from 14,141 articles with graphs covering 8,087 extracted events. Across six controlled agent settings, temporally valid retrieval is the strongest driver of outcome accuracy; causal graph construction improves key-event recovery; and correct graph-enabled forecasts are more strongly grounded in key events and relevant sources, yet agents still struggle to convert grounded evidence into calibrated probabilities.
EigentSearch-Q+: Enhancing Deep Research Agents with Structured Reasoning Tools
Deep research requires reasoning over web evidence to answer open-ended questions, and it is a core capability for AI agents. Yet many deep research agents still rely on implicit, unstructured search behavior that causes redundant exploration and brittle evidence aggregation. Motivated by Anthropic's "think" tool paradigm and insights from the information-retrieval literature, we introduce Q+, a set of query and evidence processing tools that make web search more deliberate by guiding query planning, monitoring search progress, and extracting evidence from long web snapshots. We integrate Q+ into the browser sub-agent of Eigent, an open-source, production-ready multi-agent workforce for computer use, yielding EigentSearch-Q+. Across four benchmarks (SimpleQA-Verified, FRAMES, WebWalkerQA, and X-Bench DeepSearch), Q+ improves Eigent's browser agent benchmark-size-weighted average accuracy by 3.0, 3.8, and 0.6 percentage points (pp) for GPT-4.1, GPT-5.1, and Minimax M2.5 model backends, respectively. Case studies further suggest that EigentSearch-Q+ produces more coherent tool-calling trajectories by making search progress and evidence handling explicit.