Wei Wei
Publications
PARA-PV: Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented PV Prediction Based on Frozen Foundation Model and Distribution Shift Correction
Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for reliable grid dispatch and renewable energy integration, yet it remains challenging because PV generation is jointly shaped by weather variability, day-night transitions, regime-dependent dynamics, and strict physical constraints. We propose PARA-PV, a Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented framework that embeds physical knowledge throughout the forecasting process. The framework first encodes multivariate PV observations into patch-level representations and, through a physics-aware retrieval-augmented learner, retrieves historical patches and analog trajectories that are consistent with the current window in temporal shape, power level, PV operating state, and intra-day period; this yields a physically grounded base forecast. To supplement local memory with broader temporal knowledge, the base forecast is then calibrated against a frozen Chronos time-series foundation-model prior through a lightweight residual adapter, so that general temporal regularities are adapted to PV-specific dynamics without overriding the physically grounded prediction. Because residual conditional distribution shifts persist when weather and diurnal regimes change, a physics-aware distribution shift correction module subsequently adjusts the preliminary forecast using power, weather, timestamp, and day/night conditions, applying gated mean-shift and scale corrections selectively. Finally, a physics-constrained loss function partitions the samples into peak, ramping, night-time, and regular regimes and adaptively reweights their error contributions, preventing the dominant regular regime from suppressing learning of operationally critical states. Our code is available at https://github.com/weican1103/PARA-PV.
Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs for Large Scale Traffic Forecasting
Spatiotemporal forecasting in physical systems, such as large-scale traffic networks, requires modeling a dual dynamic: continuous macroscopic rhythms and discrete, unpredictable microscopic shocks. While Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) excel at capturing smooth evolution, their inherent Lipschitz continuity constraints inevitably cause severe over-smoothing when confronting abrupt anomalies. Recent physics-informed methods attempt to bypass this by penalizing numerical integration errors to enforce manifold smoothness. However, we mathematically reveal that such rigid regularization inherently triggers gradient conflicts and ``attention collapse,'' stripping the model of its sensitivity to anomalies. To resolve this continuity-shock dilemma, we propose Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs (LTE-ODE). Rather than treating numerical error as a nuisance to be eliminated, we innovatively repurpose the Local Truncation Error (LTE) as an unsupervised forward inductive bias. By mapping the LTE into a dynamic spatial attention mask, our architecture gracefully preserves high-precision continuous ODE evolution in stable regions, while adaptively triggering a discrete compensation branch exclusively at shock points. Trained purely end-to-end without manifold penalties, LTE-ODE achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple large-scale benchmarks, exhibiting exceptional robustness against highly non-linear fluctuations. Furthermore, our ablation on integration steps demonstrates high deployment flexibility, allowing the model to seamlessly adapt to varying hardware memory constraints in real-world applications.
Solar-VLM: Multimodal Vision-Language Models for Augmented Solar Power Forecasting
Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a critical role in power system dispatch and market participation. Because PV generation is highly sensitive to weather conditions and cloud motion, accurate forecasting requires effective modeling of complex spatiotemporal dependencies across multiple information sources. Although recent studies have advanced AI-based forecasting methods, most fail to fuse temporal observations, satellite imagery, and textual weather information in a unified framework. This paper proposes Solar-VLM, a large-language-model-driven framework for multimodal PV power forecasting. First, modality-specific encoders are developed to extract complementary features from heterogeneous inputs. The time-series encoder adopts a patch-based design to capture temporal patterns from multivariate observations at each site. The visual encoder, built upon a Qwen-based vision backbone, extracts cloud-cover information from satellite images. The text encoder distills historical weather characteristics from textual descriptions. Second, to capture spatial dependencies across geographically distributed PV stations, a cross-site feature fusion mechanism is introduced. Specifically, a Graph Learner models inter-station correlations through a graph attention network constructed over a K-nearest-neighbor (KNN) graph, while a cross-site attention module further facilitates adaptive information exchange among sites. Finally, experiments conducted on data from eight PV stations in a northern province of China demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Our proposed model is publicly available at https://github.com/rhp413/Solar-VLM.