Xingyu Zhang
Publications
Ground-Truth Neighborhood Regularization for Reinforcement Learning Post-Training of Time Series Foundation Models
Time series forecasting (TSF) plays an important role in a wide range of real-world applications. Recently, time series foundation models (TSFMs), pretrained on large-scale datasets, have demonstrated strong generalization capabilities and emerged as an important paradigm for TSF. Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training has consequently attracted growing attention as a means of further improving their performance on downstream tasks. However, we find that, in certain forecast regions, RL post-training may gradually shift the output distributions of TSFMs away from the ground truth, thereby limiting their performance. We refer to this phenomenon as \textbf{suboptimal collapse}. Our analysis suggests that difficulty in initially sampling high-quality trajectories near the ground truth is an important contributing factor to suboptimal collapse. To address this issue, we propose Ground-Truth Neighborhood Regularization (GTN-R) for RL post-training of TSFMs. GTN-R uses the ground truth as a reference for locating high-quality regions and guides the model's probability mass toward the ground-truth neighborhood. This increases the probability of sampling high-quality trajectories, mitigates suboptimal collapse, and improves performance. Moreover, GTN-R can be flexibly integrated into various RL methods for TSFMs. Extensive experiments show its effectiveness.
Hypergraph and Latent ODE Learning for Multimodal Root Cause Localization in Microservices
Root cause localization in cloud native microservice systems requires modeling complex service dependencies, irregular temporal dynamics, and heterogeneous observability data. We present HyperODE RCA, a unified framework that combines hypergraph attention learning, latent ordinary differential equations, and multimodal cross attention fusion for fine grained root cause analysis. The method learns higher order service interactions through differentiable hyperedge construction, captures continuous anomaly evolution from irregular observations with an ODE RNN encoder, and adaptively fuses logs, traces, metrics, entities, and events using context aware modality routing. We further improve robustness with a variational information bottleneck, temporal causal regularization, and invariant risk constraints. Experiments on the Tianchi AIOps benchmark show clear gains over strong baselines in ranking and classification performance, while preserving interpretability through learned hypergraph attention.
LAtent Phase Inference from Short time sequences using SHallow REcurrent Decoders (LAPIS-SHRED)
Reconstructing full spatio-temporal dynamics from sparse observations in both space and time remains a central challenge in complex systems, as measurements can be spatially incomplete and can be also limited to narrow temporal windows. Yet approximating the complete spatio-temporal trajectory is essential for mechanistic insight and understanding, model calibration, and operational decision-making. We introduce LAPIS-SHRED (LAtent Phase Inference from Short time sequence using SHallow REcurrent Decoders), a modular architecture that reconstructs and/or forecasts complete spatiotemporal dynamics from sparse sensor observations confined to short temporal windows. LAPIS-SHRED operates through a three-stage pipeline: (i) a SHRED model is pre-trained entirely on simulation data to map sensor time-histories into a structured latent space, (ii) a temporal sequence model, trained on simulation-derived latent trajectories, learns to propagate latent states forward or backward in time to span unobserved temporal regions from short observational time windows, and (iii) at deployment, only a short observation window of hyper-sparse sensor measurements from the true system is provided, from which the frozen SHRED model and the temporal model jointly reconstruct or forecast the complete spatiotemporal trajectory. The framework supports bidirectional inference, inherits data assimilation and multiscale reconstruction capabilities from its modular structure, and accommodates extreme observational constraints including single-frame terminal inputs. We evaluate LAPIS-SHRED on six experiments spanning complex spatio-temporal physics: turbulent flows, multiscale propulsion physics, volatile combustion transients, and satellite-derived environmental fields, highlighting a lightweight, modular architecture suited for operational settings where observation is constrained by physical or logistical limitations.