Kevin P. Murphy
Publications
Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs
We present BLF (Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) A linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running $K$ independent trials and combining them using logit-space shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 backtesting questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Ablation studies show that the structured belief state is almost as impactful as web search access, and that shrinkage aggregation and hierarchical calibration each provide significant additional gains. In addition, we develop a robust back-testing framework with a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and use rigorous statistical methodology to compare different methods while controlling for various sources of noise.
World Action Verifier: Self-Improving World Models via Forward-Inverse Asymmetry
General-purpose world models promise scalable policy evaluation, optimization, and planning, yet achieving the required level of robustness remains challenging. Unlike policy learning, which primarily focuses on optimal actions, a world model must be reliable over a much broader range of suboptimal actions, which are often insufficiently covered by action-labeled interaction data. To address this challenge, we propose World Action Verifier (WAV), a framework that enables world models to identify their own prediction errors and self-improve. The key idea is to decompose action-conditioned state prediction into two factors -- state plausibility and action reachability -- and verify each separately. We show that these verification problems can be substantially easier than predicting future states due to two underlying asymmetries: the broader availability of action-free data and the lower dimensionality of action-relevant features. Leveraging these asymmetries, we augment a world model with (i) a diverse subgoal generator obtained from video corpora and (ii) a sparse inverse model that infers actions from a subset of state features. By enforcing cycle consistency among generated subgoals, inferred actions, and forward rollouts, WAV provides an effective verification mechanism in under-explored regimes, where existing methods typically fail. Across nine tasks spanning MiniGrid, RoboMimic, and ManiSkill, our method achieves 2x higher sample efficiency while improving downstream policy performance by 18%.