Yulun Wu
Publications
GS-FUSE: Granger-Supervised Gated Fusion and Multi-Granularity Alignment for Event-Driven Financial Forecasting
Accurately forecasting the impact of salient financial events on markets is critical for investors and policymakers. However, existing multimodal time-series models typically fuse text and prices symmetrically, without an explicit way to decide when event text is truly predictive, and thus struggle to exploit the directional event-to-price structure and the heterogeneous roles of textual and price signals. In this work, we propose GS-Fuse, a multimodal event-based forecasting framework that employs (i) a Granger-supervised, causal-aware gated fusion module, which learns to open toward event text only when it provides incremental predictive value beyond historical prices, and (ii) a multi-granularity alignment mechanism that jointly aligns high-level event representations and fine-grained textual cues with future market trajectories. Built as a flexible, plug-and-play adapter on top of off-the-shelf large language models and time-series foundation models, GS-Fuse can be instantiated across diverse backbones and market settings. Extensive experiments on real-world financial datasets show that GS-Fuse consistently outperforms state-of-the-art time-series and multimodal baselines across multiple assets and forecasting horizons.
Dynamic Tokenization via Reinforcement Patching: End-to-end Training and Zero-shot Transfer
Efficiently aggregating spatial or temporal horizons to acquire compact representations has become a unifying principle in modern deep learning models, yet learning data-adaptive representations for long-horizon sequence data, especially continuous sequences like time series, remains an open challenge. While fixed-size patching has improved scalability and performance, discovering variable-sized, data-driven patches end-to-end often forces models to rely on soft discretization, specific backbones, or heuristic rules. In this work, we propose Reinforcement Patching (ReinPatch), the first framework to jointly optimize a sequence patching policy and its downstream sequence backbone model using reinforcement learning. By formulating patch boundary placement as a discrete decision process optimized via Group Relative Policy Gradient (GRPG), ReinPatch bypasses the need for continuous relaxations and performs dynamic patching policy optimization in a natural manner. Moreover, our method allows strict enforcement of a desired compression rate, freeing the downstream backbone to scale efficiently, and naturally supports multi-level hierarchical modeling. We evaluate ReinPatch on time-series forecasting datasets, where it demonstrates compelling performance compared to state-of-the-art data-driven patching strategies. Furthermore, our detached design allows the patching module to be extracted as a standalone foundation patcher, providing the community with visual and empirical insights into the segmentation behaviors preferred by a purely performance-driven neural patching strategy.