Kaiwen Shi
Publications
Policy4OOD: A Knowledge-Guided World Model for Policy Intervention Simulation against the Opioid Overdose Crisis
The opioid epidemic remains one of the most severe public health crises in the United States, yet evaluating policy interventions before implementation is difficult: multiple policies interact within a dynamic system where targeting one risk pathway may inadvertently amplify another. We argue that effective opioid policy evaluation requires three capabilities -- forecasting future outcomes under current policies, counterfactual reasoning about alternative past decisions, and optimization over candidate interventions -- and propose to unify them through world modeling. We introduce Policy4OOD, a knowledge-guided spatio-temporal world model that addresses three core challenges: what policies prescribe, where effects manifest, and when effects unfold.Policy4OOD jointly encodes policy knowledge graphs, state-level spatial dependencies, and socioeconomic time series into a policy-conditioned Transformer that forecasts future opioid outcomes.Once trained, the world model serves as a simulator: forecasting requires only a forward pass, counterfactual analysis substitutes alternative policy encodings in the historical sequence, and policy optimization employs Monte Carlo Tree Search over the learned simulator. To support this framework, we construct a state-level monthly dataset (2019--2024) integrating opioid mortality, socioeconomic indicators, and structured policy encodings. Experiments demonstrate that spatial dependencies and structured policy knowledge significantly improve forecasting accuracy, validating each architectural component and the potential of world modeling for data-driven public health decision support.
Drift-Bench: Diagnosing Cooperative Breakdowns in LLM Agents under Input Faults via Multi-Turn Interaction
As Large Language Models transition to autonomous agents, user inputs frequently violate cooperative assumptions (e.g., implicit intent, missing parameters, false presuppositions, or ambiguous expressions), creating execution risks that text-only evaluations do not capture. Existing benchmarks typically assume well-specified instructions or restrict evaluation to text-only, single-turn clarification, and thus do not measure multi-turn disambiguation under grounded execution risk. We introduce \textbf{Drift-Bench}, the first diagnostic benchmark that evaluates agentic pragmatics under input faults through multi-turn clarification across state-oriented and service-oriented execution environments. Grounded in classical theories of communication, \textbf{Drift-Bench} provides a unified taxonomy of cooperative breakdowns and employs a persona-driven user simulator with the \textbf{Rise} evaluation protocol. Experiments show substantial performance drops under these faults, with clarification effectiveness varying across user personas and fault types. \MethodName bridges clarification research and agent safety evaluation, enabling systematic diagnosis of failures that can lead to unsafe executions.