Nanyun Peng
Publications
Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting
Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.
TaoBench: Do Automated Theorem Prover LLMs Generalize Beyond MathLib?
Automated theorem proving (ATP) benchmarks largely consist of problems formalized in MathLib, so current ATP training and evaluation are heavily biased toward MathLib's definitional framework. However, frontier mathematics is often exploratory and prototype-heavy, relying on bespoke constructions that deviate from standard libraries. In this work, we evaluate the robustness of current ATP systems when applied to a novel definitional framework, specifically examining the performance gap between standard library problems and bespoke mathematical constructions. We introduce TaoBench, an undergraduate-level benchmark derived from Terence Tao's Analysis I, which formalizes analysis by constructing core mathematical concepts from scratch, without relying on standard Mathlib definitions, as well as by mixing from-scratch and MathLib constructions. For fair evaluation, we build an agentic pipeline that automatically extracts a compilable, self-contained local environment for each problem. To isolate the effect of definitional frameworks, we additionally translate every problem into a mathematically equivalent Mathlib formulation, yielding paired TaoBench-Mathlib statements for direct comparison. While state-of-the-art ATP models perform capably within the MathLib framework, performance drops by an average of roughly 26% on the definitionally equivalent Tao formulation. This indicates that the main bottleneck is limited generalization across definitional frameworks rather than task difficulty. TaoBench thus highlights a gap between benchmark performance and applicability, and provides a concrete foundation for developing and testing provers better aligned with research mathematics.