Evandro S. Ortigossa
Publications
FADEx: Feature Attribution and Distortion-based Explanation of Dimensionality Reduction
Dimensionality Reduction (DR) is a fundamental tool for high-dimensional data exploration, reducing the complexity of latent spaces of machine learning models, and assisting in the explanation of complex opaque models. However, non-linear DR techniques often function as opaque transformations themselves, making it challenging to understand how individual features influence instance positioning in the reduced space. This lack of transparency complicates the analysis and interpretation of structural patterns, hindering the ability to reason about the organization of high-dimensional data based on the projected layout. In order to address this challenge, dimensionality reduction explanation methods have shown promise in improving the understanding of the observed groups and cluster structures. Unfortunately, existing DR explanation approaches tend to suffer from limitations such as multiple attributions per feature and restricted applicability to specific dimensionality reduction methods, which hinder their use. In this work, we propose FADEx, a novel local per-instance feature attribution method that leverages local linear approximation via first-order Taylor expansion and Singular Value Decomposition to provide explanations. FADEx computes the local linear models via weighted least squares, eliminating the need for out-of-sample data mapping, making it agnostic to the DR method, while simultaneously providing local feature attributions and distortion analysis. Through qualitative and quantitative evaluations, comparisons with existing methods, and case studies, we demonstrate FADEx's effectiveness and versatility in providing explanations and analytical resources for analyzing the behavior of DR methods. The results indicate FADEx yields robust and reliable explanations, outperforming existing approaches in several aspects.
MoHETS: Long-term Time Series Forecasting with Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts
Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by $12\%$ compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting.
Seg-MoE: Multi-Resolution Segment-wise Mixture-of-Experts for Time Series Forecasting Transformers
Transformer-based models have recently made significant advances in accurate time-series forecasting, but even these architectures struggle to scale efficiently while capturing long-term temporal dynamics. Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers are a proven solution to scaling problems in natural language processing. However, existing MoE approaches for time-series forecasting rely on token-wise routing mechanisms, which may fail to exploit the natural locality and continuity of temporal data. In this work, we introduce Seg-MoE, a sparse MoE design that routes and processes contiguous time-step segments rather than making independent expert decisions. Token segments allow each expert to model intra-segment interactions directly, naturally aligning with inherent temporal patterns. We integrate Seg-MoE layers into a time-series Transformer and evaluate it on multiple multivariate long-term forecasting benchmarks. Seg-MoE consistently achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy across almost all prediction horizons, outperforming both dense Transformers and prior token-wise MoE models. Comprehensive ablation studies confirm that segment-level routing is the key factor driving these gains. Our results show that aligning the MoE routing granularity with the inherent structure of time series provides a powerful, yet previously underexplored, inductive bias, opening new avenues for conditionally sparse architectures in sequential data modeling.