Takeshi Kojima
Famous AuthorPublications
OrderGrad: Optimizing Beyond the Mean with Order-Statistic Policy Gradient Estimation
Policy-gradient methods usually optimize expected return, but many real world applications care about distributional properties of returns: tail risk, outlier robustness, or best-of-K discovery. We introduce OrderGrad, a family of likelihood-ratio and reparameterization gradient estimators for order-statistic objectives. OrderGrad optimizes finite-sample L-statistics, i.e., weighted averages of sorted rewards or costs, recovering objectives such as VaR, CVaR, trimmed means, medians, and top-m/best-of-K criteria by changing only the rank weights. For any fixed sample size and rank-weight vector, OrderGrad provides an unbiased gradient estimator for the corresponding order-statistic objective. The method is implemented as a simple reward transformation that can then be used in an otherwise standard policy-gradient or reparameterized update. We study the resulting estimator's variance behavior and evaluate it on tasks where mean optimization is mismatched to the deployment objective, including LLM math post-training and other tasks. OrderGrad provides a unified, plug-and-play route to risk-averse, robust, and exploratory learning. Code: https://github.com/paavo5/ordergrad
On Advantage Estimates for Max@K Policy Gradients
Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards is widely used for post-training reasoning models, but sparse outcome rewards make exploration difficult. A complementary approach is to optimize inference-time objectives such as pass@K and max@K directly, yet existing policy-gradient estimators for these objectives use different signals, baselines, and normalizations, making their relationships unclear. We study this issue through baseline design and advantage centering. Starting from the advantage estimator of a leading method in the field, we show that it is policy-gradient unbiased but yields a non-centered advantage. We then introduce a Leave-Two-Out baseline that preserves policy-gradient unbiasedness while making realized batch advantages exactly centered. The resulting method, MaxPO, has an efficient quadratic-time implementation and integrates naturally into group-based RL for LLM post-training. We further derive the canonical finite-batch advantage for max@K, providing a unified view of existing advantage estimators. Empirically, we verify that the L2O baseline reduces gradient variance and outperforms non-centered alternatives.
Zipping the Thought: When and How Compressed Reasoning Data Works in LLM Post-Training
Large language models (LLMs) can now solve complex problems through long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, but the trade-off between performance and token cost remains a central challenge. To address this issue, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) often uses compressed reasoning data, where CoT traces are shortened into compact forms. However, the effect of such compressed reasoning data on post-training remains poorly understood. In this paper, we propose a taxonomy of CoT consisting of Explicit CoT, which outputs all operations without aggregation, Composed CoT, which combines multiple operations into a single step, and Implicit CoT, which omits intermediate operations. We construct a synthetic compositional reasoning task that allows controlled variation of difficulty, compression granularity, and data size, and conducted a comprehensive set of experiments across different model families and sizes. Notably, we find that (i) coarser CoT requires more SFT data, (ii) compared with Explicit CoT, Composed CoT and Implicit CoT benefit more from data scaling, while Composed CoT benefits from data repetition and Implicit CoT tends to lead to memorization, (iii) unlike SFT, subsequent reinforcement learning (RL) with verifiable rewards (RLVR) decomposes compressed steps learned during SFT, and (iv) unidirectional CoT ordering shows stronger generalization on longer sequential tasks. Our findings provide implications for CoT design under data resource constraints and offer important insights into the mechanisms of SFT and RL in LLM post-training.
Semantic Token Clustering for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks. However, the truthfulness of their outputs is not guaranteed, and their tendency toward overconfidence further limits reliability. Uncertainty quantification offers a promising way to identify potentially unreliable outputs, but most existing methods rely on repeated sampling or auxiliary models, introducing substantial computational overhead. To address these limitations, we propose Semantic Token Clustering (STC), an efficient uncertainty quantification method that leverages the semantic information inherently encoded in LLMs. Specifically, we group tokens into semantically consistent clusters using embedding clustering and prefix matching, and quantify uncertainty based on the probability mass aggregated over the corresponding semantic cluster. Our approach requires only a single generation and does not depend on auxiliary models. Experimental results show that STC achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art baselines while substantially reducing computational overhead.
ClinDet-Bench: Beyond Abstention, Evaluating Judgment Determinability of LLMs in Clinical Decision-Making
Clinical decisions are often required under incomplete information. Clinical experts must identify whether available information is sufficient for judgment, as both premature conclusion and unnecessary abstention can compromise patient safety. To evaluate this capability of large language models (LLMs), we developed ClinDet-Bench, a benchmark based on clinical scoring systems that decomposes incomplete-information scenarios into determinable and undeterminable conditions. Identifying determinability requires considering all hypotheses about missing information, including unlikely ones, and verifying whether the conclusion holds across them. We find that recent LLMs fail to identify determinability under incomplete information, producing both premature judgments and excessive abstention, despite correctly explaining the underlying scoring knowledge and performing well under complete information. These findings suggest that existing benchmarks are insufficient to evaluate the safety of LLMs in clinical settings. ClinDet-Bench provides a framework for evaluating determinability recognition, leading to appropriate abstention, with potential applicability to medicine and other high-stakes domains, and is publicly available.
Emergent Analogical Reasoning in Transformers
Analogy is a central faculty of human intelligence, enabling abstract patterns discovered in one domain to be applied to another. Despite its central role in cognition, the mechanisms by which Transformers acquire and implement analogical reasoning remain poorly understood. In this work, inspired by the notion of functors in category theory, we formalize analogical reasoning as the inference of correspondences between entities across categories. Based on this formulation, we introduce synthetic tasks that evaluate the emergence of analogical reasoning under controlled settings. We find that the emergence of analogical reasoning is highly sensitive to data characteristics, optimization choices, and model scale. Through mechanistic analysis, we show that analogical reasoning in Transformers decomposes into two key components: (1) geometric alignment of relational structure in the embedding space, and (2) the application of a functor within the Transformer. These mechanisms enable models to transfer relational structure from one category to another, realizing analogy. Finally, we quantify these effects and find that the same trends are observed in pretrained LLMs. In doing so, we move analogy from an abstract cognitive notion to a concrete, mechanistically grounded phenomenon in modern neural networks.
Emergent Analogical Reasoning in Transformers
Analogy is a central faculty of human intelligence, enabling abstract patterns discovered in one domain to be applied to another. Despite its central role in cognition, the mechanisms by which Transformers acquire and implement analogical reasoning remain poorly understood. In this work, inspired by the notion of functors in category theory, we formalize analogical reasoning as the inference of correspondences between entities across categories. Based on this formulation, we introduce synthetic tasks that evaluate the emergence of analogical reasoning under controlled settings. We find that the emergence of analogical reasoning is highly sensitive to data characteristics, optimization choices, and model scale. Through mechanistic analysis, we show that analogical reasoning in Transformers decomposes into two key components: (1) geometric alignment of relational structure in the embedding space, and (2) the application of a functor within the Transformer. These mechanisms enable models to transfer relational structure from one category to another, realizing analogy. Finally, we quantify these effects and find that the same trends are observed in pretrained LLMs. In doing so, we move analogy from an abstract cognitive notion to a concrete, mechanistically grounded phenomenon in modern neural networks.