Kan Ren
Publications
KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning
Cross-domain multimodal time series forecasting is a challenging task, requiring models to integrate precise numerical comprehension, cross-domain semantic understanding, and effective multimodal fusion. Existing approaches either build Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch or leverage pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs). However, TSFMs often overlook semantic understanding and lack the ability to perform future-oriented semantic reasoning, and LLMs struggle with numerical comprehension and accurate quantitative forecasting. To overcome these limitations, we propose KairosAgent, a novel agentic framework for multimodal time series forecasting, including an LLM-based reasoner and a TSFM-based forecaster. KairosAgent unifies textual reasoning and numerical forecasting by dynamically invoking analytical tools to enhance the numerical understanding and semantic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The reasoning results are subsequently fused into the TSFM pipeline, enabling more accurate and reliable future predictions. To further improve the reasoning, we curate a large-scale corpus of high-quality trajectories, alongside a reinforcement learning from forecasting paradigm with multi-turn refinement and turn-level credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that KairosAgent achieves superior zero-shot forecasting performance while maximizing the utility of pretrained LLMs and TSFMs, presenting a promising direction for efficient and interpretable time series agents. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/KairosAgent .
Interpreting and Controlling LLM Reasoning through Integrated Policy Gradient
Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong reasoning abilities in solving complex real-world problems. Yet, the internal mechanisms driving these complex reasoning behaviors remain opaque. Existing interpretability approaches targeting reasoning either identify components (e.g., neurons) correlated with special textual patterns, or rely on human-annotated contrastive pairs to derive control vectors. Consequently, current methods struggle to precisely localize complex reasoning mechanisms or capture sequential influence from model internal workings to the reasoning outputs. In this paper, built on outcome-oriented and sequential-influence-aware principles, we focus on identifying components that have sequential contribution to reasoning behavior where outcomes are cumulated by long-range effects. We propose Integrated Policy Gradient (IPG), a novel framework that attributes reasoning behaviors to model's inner components by propagating compound outcome-based signals such as post reasoning accuracy backward through model inference trajectories. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our approach achieves more precise localization and enables reliable modulation of reasoning behaviors (e.g., reasoning capability, reasoning strength) across diverse reasoning models.
Interpreting and Controlling LLM Reasoning through Integrated Policy Gradient
Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong reasoning abilities in solving complex real-world problems. Yet, the internal mechanisms driving these complex reasoning behaviors remain opaque. Existing interpretability approaches targeting reasoning either identify components (e.g., neurons) correlated with special textual patterns, or rely on human-annotated contrastive pairs to derive control vectors. Consequently, current methods struggle to precisely localize complex reasoning mechanisms or capture sequential influence from model internal workings to the reasoning outputs. In this paper, built on outcome-oriented and sequential-influence-aware principles, we focus on identifying components that have sequential contribution to reasoning behavior where outcomes are cumulated by long-range effects. We propose Integrated Policy Gradient (IPG), a novel framework that attributes reasoning behaviors to model's inner components by propagating compound outcome-based signals such as post reasoning accuracy backward through model inference trajectories. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our approach achieves more precise localization and enables reliable modulation of reasoning behaviors (e.g., reasoning capability, reasoning strength) across diverse reasoning models.