Yanfan Zhu
Publications
DRIFT: Direct-Recursive Intervention-Conditioned Forecasting of ICU Physiological Trajectories
Many time-series forecasts depend not only on prior observations but also on actions specified during the forecast period. In intensive care units (ICUs), future vital signs and laboratory values are influenced by treatments such as vasopressors. However, models that predict the full future sequence all at once make little use of these treatments, whereas autoregressive models can accumulate errors. We introduce DRIFT, a hybrid framework in which a direct model produces the primary forecast and a recursive, action-conditioned model contributes constrained corrections. We evaluate DRIFT on 6,046 admissions from MIMIC-IV and 8,345 admissions from eICU-CRD. Averaged across the 8-, 24-, and 48-hour forecast endpoints, DRIFT reduces mean absolute error for mean arterial pressure (MAP) by 0.673% relative to an action-conditioned Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT-action) on MIMIC-IV and achieves the lowest corresponding error among the compared models on eICU-CRD. Although the overall accuracy improvement is modest, a MIMIC-IV audit restricted to windows in which the supplied treatment sequence was altered showed that DRIFT achieved lower observed-target MAP error than TFT-action at 8 and 24 hours. Treatment-sequence alteration increased DRIFT's MAP error by 0.21-0.26 mmHg more than it increased TFT-action's error, with prediction changes occurring primarily after the supplied paths diverged. In a separate robustness experiment, the MAP advantage persisted under three shared checkpoint-selection rules emphasizing overall endpoint error, MAP error, or both equally.
AdaFuse: Adaptive Multimodal Fusion for Lung Cancer Risk Prediction via Reinforcement Learning
Multimodal fusion has emerged as a promising paradigm for disease diagnosis and prognosis, integrating complementary information from heterogeneous data sources such as medical images, clinical records, and radiology reports. However, existing fusion methods process all available modalities through the network, either treating them equally or learning to assign different contribution weights, leaving a fundamental question unaddressed: for a given patient, should certain modalities be used at all? We present AdaFuse, an adaptive multimodal fusion framework that leverages reinforcement learning (RL) to learn patient-specific modality selection and fusion strategies for lung cancer risk prediction. AdaFuse formulates multimodal fusion as a sequential decision process, where the policy network iteratively decides whether to incorporate an additional modality or proceed to prediction based on the information already acquired. This sequential formulation enables the model to condition each selection on previously observed modalities and terminate early when sufficient information is available, rather than committing to a fixed subset upfront. We evaluate AdaFuse on the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that AdaFuse achieves the highest AUC (0.762) compared to the best single-modality baseline (0.732), the best fixed fusion strategy (0.759), and adaptive baselines including DynMM (0.754) and MoE (0.742), while using fewer FLOPs than all triple-modality methods. Our work demonstrates the potential of reinforcement learning for personalized multimodal fusion in medical imaging, representing a shift from uniform fusion strategies toward adaptive diagnostic pipelines that learn when to consult additional modalities and when existing information suffices for accurate prediction.