Pengkun Wang
Publications
To See Far, Look Close: Evolutionary Forecasting for Long-term Time Series
The prevailing Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm dominates Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) by forcing models to predict the entire future horizon in a single forward pass. While efficient, this rigid coupling of output and evaluation horizons necessitates computationally prohibitive re-training for every target horizon. In this work, we uncover a counter-intuitive optimization anomaly: models trained on short horizons-when coupled with our proposed Evolutionary Forecasting (EF) paradigm-significantly outperform those trained directly on long horizons. We attribute this success to the mitigation of a fundamental optimization pathology inherent in DF, where conflicting gradients from distant futures cripple the learning of local dynamics. We establish EF as a unified generative framework, proving that DF is merely a degenerate special case of EF. Extensive experiments demonstrate that a singular EF model surpasses task-specific DF ensembles across standard benchmarks and exhibits robust asymptotic stability in extreme extrapolation. This work propels a paradigm shift in LTSF: moving from passive Static Mapping to autonomous Evolutionary Reasoning.
FaLW: A Forgetting-aware Loss Reweighting for Long-tailed Unlearning
Machine unlearning, which aims to efficiently remove the influence of specific data from trained models, is crucial for upholding data privacy regulations like the ``right to be forgotten". However, existing research predominantly evaluates unlearning methods on relatively balanced forget sets. This overlooks a common real-world scenario where data to be forgotten, such as a user's activity records, follows a long-tailed distribution. Our work is the first to investigate this critical research gap. We find that in such long-tailed settings, existing methods suffer from two key issues: \textit{Heterogeneous Unlearning Deviation} and \textit{Skewed Unlearning Deviation}. To address these challenges, we propose FaLW, a plug-and-play, instance-wise dynamic loss reweighting method. FaLW innovatively assesses the unlearning state of each sample by comparing its predictive probability to the distribution of unseen data from the same class. Based on this, it uses a forgetting-aware reweighting scheme, modulated by a balancing factor, to adaptively adjust the unlearning intensity for each sample. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FaLW achieves superior performance.