H. Larochelle
Publications
Alien Science: Sampling Coherent but Cognitively Unavailable Research Directions from Idea Atoms
Large language models are adept at synthesizing and recombining familiar material, yet they often fail at a specific kind of creativity that matters most in research: producing ideas that are both coherent and non-obvious to the current community. We formalize this gap through cognitive availability, the likelihood that a research direction would be naturally proposed by a typical researcher given what they have worked on. We introduce a pipeline that (i) decomposes papers into granular conceptual units, (ii) clusters recurring units into a shared vocabulary of idea atoms, and (iii) learns two complementary models: a coherence model that scores whether a set of atoms constitutes a viable direction, and an availability model that scores how likely that direction is to be generated by researchers drawn from the community. We then sample "alien" directions that score high on coherence but low on availability. On a corpus of $\sim$7,500 recent LLM papers from NeurIPS, ICLR and ICML, we validate that (a) conceptual units preserve paper content under reconstruction, (b) idea atoms generalize across papers rather than memorizing paper-specific phrasing, and (c) the Alien sampler produces research directions that are more diverse than LLM baselines while maintaining coherence.
BRIDGE: Predicting Human Task Completion Time From Model Performance
Evaluating the real-world capabilities of AI systems requires grounding benchmark performance in human-interpretable measures of task difficulty. Existing approaches that rely on direct human task completion time annotations are costly, noisy, and difficult to scale across benchmarks. In this work, we propose BRIDGE, a unified psychometric framework that learns the latent difficulty scale from model responses and anchors it to human task completion time. Using a two-parameter logistic Item Response Theory model, we jointly estimate latent task difficulty and model capability from model performance data across multiple benchmarks. We demonstrate that latent task difficulty varies linearly with the logarithm of human completion time, allowing human task completion time to be inferred for new benchmarks from model performance alone. Leveraging this alignment, we forecast frontier model capabilities in terms of human task length and independently reproduce METR's exponential scaling results, with the 50% solvable task horizon doubling approximately every 6 months.