Jiacheng Guo
Publications
AQuA: Recursively Self-Improving Quantitative Trading Research Agents
We study recursive self-improvement at the level of quantitative-investment research: whether an autonomous system can use evidence from earlier experiments to improve the hypotheses and candidates proposed in later iterations. We present AQuA, which comprises two separate language-model-driven research systems: one for symbolic factor discovery and one for trainable model development. The two systems do not share agents, memories, candidate spaces, or research state. Instead, each independently closes its own research loop by retaining validated evidence and using it to guide subsequent proposals. In this bounded sense, both systems implement recursive self-improvement at the level of the research process. Each system also uses its own sealed sandbox, which fixes the data splits, feature and label definitions, and evaluator while allowing the model to act only through constrained factor expressions or configuration diffs. The factor system, a manager-mediated multi-agent pipeline, discovers and combines factors into a signal that reaches a combined information coefficient of about $0.190$ on a crypto universe. The model system, a config-driven loop over a hybrid time-series architecture, reaches a per-stock information coefficient of $+0.0843$ on US equities and converts it into a threshold long/short strategy with a held-out Sharpe of up to $+2.50$ at a two-leg cost. The strategy is positive in every year from 2021 to 2025.
DeepLoop: Depth Scaling for Looped Transformers
Looped Transformers scale sequential computation by applying a compact stack of physical blocks for multiple rounds, increasing unrolled depth without increasing stored parameters. This reuse changes the residual-scaling problem: in an untied Transformer, each residual branch receives and applies its own parameter update, whereas in a looped Transformer one shared update aggregates gradients from repeated visits and is read back by those same visits in the next linearized forward pass. We formalize this tied-depth effect through a first-order perturbation bound controlled by a visit-alignment coefficient $κ_R$. The bound recovers the DeepNorm exponent when visits decorrelate, but in the conservative aligned regime it requires the exponent to increase from $1/4$ to $1/2$ as loop count grows at fixed physical depth. The resulting method, \textbf{DeepLoop}, keeps the Post-LN DeepNorm architecture and sets $α=(2N)^{1/2}$ and $β=(8N)^{-1/2}$ for unrolled depth $N$. On GPT-style looped language models at GPT-2 small and GPT-2 medium scale, DeepLoop is neutral when no physical block is revisited and improves validation loss and downstream accuracy once recurrent depth is activated. These results show that stable recurrent depth requires residual scaling rules that account for parameter visits, not only nominal layer count.
FutureX-Pro: Extending Future Prediction to High-Value Vertical Domains
Building upon FutureX, which established a live benchmark for general-purpose future prediction, this report introduces FutureX-Pro, including FutureX-Finance, FutureX-Retail, FutureX-PublicHealth, FutureX-NaturalDisaster, and FutureX-Search. These together form a specialized framework extending agentic future prediction to high-value vertical domains. While generalist agents demonstrate proficiency in open-domain search, their reliability in capital-intensive and safety-critical sectors remains under-explored. FutureX-Pro targets four economically and socially pivotal verticals: Finance, Retail, Public Health, and Natural Disaster. We benchmark agentic Large Language Models (LLMs) on entry-level yet foundational prediction tasks -- ranging from forecasting market indicators and supply chain demands to tracking epidemic trends and natural disasters. By adapting the contamination-free, live-evaluation pipeline of FutureX, we assess whether current State-of-the-Art (SOTA) agentic LLMs possess the domain grounding necessary for industrial deployment. Our findings reveal the performance gap between generalist reasoning and the precision required for high-value vertical applications.