Cise Midoglu
Publications
Time-to-Injury Forecasting in Elite Female Football: A DeepHit Survival Approach
Injury occurrence in football poses significant challenges for athletes and teams, carrying personal, competitive, and financial consequences. While machine learning has been applied to injury prediction before, existing approaches often rely on static pre-season data and binary outcomes, limiting their real-world utility. This study investigates the feasibility of using a DeepHit neural network to forecast time-to-injury from longitudinal athlete monitoring data, while providing interpretable predictions. The analysis utilised the publicly available SoccerMon dataset, containing two seasons of training, match, and wellness records from elite female footballers. Data was pre-processed through cleaning, feature engineering, and the application of three imputation strategies. Baseline models (Random Forest, XGBoost, Logistic Regression) were optimised via grid search for benchmarking, while the DeepHit model, implemented with a multilayer perceptron backbone, was evaluated using chronological and leave-one-player-out (LOPO) validation. DeepHit achieved a concordance index of 0.762, outperforming baseline models and delivering individualised, time-varying risk estimates. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) identified clinically relevant predictors consistent with established risk factors, enhancing interpretability. Overall, this study provides a novel proof of concept: survival modelling with DeepHit shows strong potential to advance injury forecasting in football, offering accurate, explainable, and actionable insights for injury prevention across competitive levels.
VideoHEDGE: Entropy-Based Hallucination Detection for Video-VLMs via Semantic Clustering and Spatiotemporal Perturbations
Hallucinations in video-capable vision-language models (Video-VLMs) remain frequent and high-confidence, while existing uncertainty metrics often fail to align with correctness. We introduce VideoHEDGE, a modular framework for hallucination detection in video question answering that extends entropy-based reliability estimation from images to temporally structured inputs. Given a video-question pair, VideoHEDGE draws a baseline answer and multiple high-temperature generations from both clean clips and photometrically and spatiotemporally perturbed variants, then clusters the resulting textual outputs into semantic hypotheses using either Natural Language Inference (NLI)-based or embedding-based methods. Cluster-level probability masses yield three reliability scores: Semantic Entropy (SE), RadFlag, and Vision-Amplified Semantic Entropy (VASE). We evaluate VideoHEDGE on the SoccerChat benchmark using an LLM-as-a-judge to obtain binary hallucination labels. Across three 7B Video-VLMs (Qwen2-VL, Qwen2.5-VL, and a SoccerChat-finetuned model), VASE consistently achieves the highest ROC-AUC, especially at larger distortion budgets, while SE and RadFlag often operate near chance. We further show that embedding-based clustering matches NLI-based clustering in detection performance at substantially lower computational cost, and that domain fine-tuning reduces hallucination frequency but yields only modest improvements in calibration. The hedge-bench PyPI library enables reproducible and extensible benchmarking, with full code and experimental resources available at https://github.com/Simula/HEDGE#videohedge .