Jianqi Zhang
Publications
Ground-Truth Neighborhood Regularization for Reinforcement Learning Post-Training of Time Series Foundation Models
Time series forecasting (TSF) plays an important role in a wide range of real-world applications. Recently, time series foundation models (TSFMs), pretrained on large-scale datasets, have demonstrated strong generalization capabilities and emerged as an important paradigm for TSF. Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training has consequently attracted growing attention as a means of further improving their performance on downstream tasks. However, we find that, in certain forecast regions, RL post-training may gradually shift the output distributions of TSFMs away from the ground truth, thereby limiting their performance. We refer to this phenomenon as \textbf{suboptimal collapse}. Our analysis suggests that difficulty in initially sampling high-quality trajectories near the ground truth is an important contributing factor to suboptimal collapse. To address this issue, we propose Ground-Truth Neighborhood Regularization (GTN-R) for RL post-training of TSFMs. GTN-R uses the ground truth as a reference for locating high-quality regions and guides the model's probability mass toward the ground-truth neighborhood. This increases the probability of sampling high-quality trajectories, mitigates suboptimal collapse, and improves performance. Moreover, GTN-R can be flexibly integrated into various RL methods for TSFMs. Extensive experiments show its effectiveness.
Enhancing Large Language Models for Time-Series Forecasting via Vector-Injected In-Context Learning
The World Wide Web needs reliable predictive capabilities to respond to changes in user behavior and usage patterns. Time series forecasting (TSF) is a key means to achieve this goal. In recent years, the large language models (LLMs) for TSF (LLM4TSF) have achieved good performance. However, there is a significant difference between pretraining corpora and time series data, making it hard to guarantee forecasting quality when directly applying LLMs to TSF; fine-tuning LLMs can mitigate this issue, but often incurs substantial computational overhead. Thus, LLM4TSF faces a dual challenge of prediction performance and compute overhead. To address this, we aim to explore a method for improving the forecasting performance of LLM4TSF while freezing all LLM parameters to reduce computational overhead. Inspired by in-context learning (ICL), we propose LVICL. LVICL uses our vector-injected ICL to inject example information into a frozen LLM, eliciting its in-context learning ability and thereby enhancing its performance on the example-related task (i.e., TSF). Specifically, we first use the LLM together with a learnable context vector adapter to extract a context vector from multiple examples adaptively. This vector contains compressed, example-related information. Subsequently, during the forward pass, we inject this vector into every layer of the LLM to improve forecasting performance. Compared with conventional ICL that adds examples into the prompt, our vector-injected ICL does not increase prompt length; moreover, adaptively deriving a context vector from examples suppresses components harmful to forecasting, thereby improving model performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.