S. Schmidgall
Publications
CoDaS: AI Co-Data-Scientist for Biomarker Discovery via Wearable Sensors
Scientific discovery in digital health requires converting continuous physiological signals from wearable devices into clinically actionable biomarkers. We introduce CoDaS (AI Co-Data-Scientist), a multi-agent system that structures biomarker discovery as an iterative process combining hypothesis generation, statistical analysis, adversarial validation, and literature-grounded reasoning with human oversight using large-scale wearable datasets. Across three cohorts totaling 9,279 participant-observations, CoDaS identified 41 candidate digital biomarkers for mental health and 25 for metabolic outcomes, each subjected to an internal validation battery spanning replication, stability, robustness, and discriminative power. Across two independent depression cohorts, CoDaS surfaced circadian instability-related features in both datasets, reflected in sleep duration variability (DWB, ρ= 0.252, p < 0.001) and sleep onset variability (GLOBEM, ρ= 0.126, p < 0.001). In a metabolic cohort, CoDaS derived a cardiovascular fitness index (steps/resting heart rate; ρ= -0.374, p < 0.001), and recovered established clinical associations, including the hepatic function ratio (AST/ALT; ρ= -0.375, p < 0.001), a known correlate of insulin resistance. Incorporating CoDaS-derived features alongside demographic variables led to modest but consistent improvements in predictive performance, with cross-validated ΔR^2 increases of 0.040 for depression and 0.021 for insulin resistance. These findings suggest that CoDaS enables systematic and traceable hypothesis generation and prioritization for biomarker discovery from large-scale wearable data.
MedGemma 1.5 Technical Report
We introduce MedGemma 1.5 4B, the latest model in the MedGemma collection. MedGemma 1.5 expands on MedGemma 1 by integrating additional capabilities: high-dimensional medical imaging (CT/MRI volumes and histopathology whole slide images), anatomical localization via bounding boxes, multi-timepoint chest X-ray analysis, and improved medical document understanding (lab reports, electronic health records). We detail the innovations required to enable these modalities within a single architecture, including new training data, long-context 3D volume slicing, and whole-slide pathology sampling. Compared to MedGemma 1 4B, MedGemma 1.5 4B demonstrates significant gains in these new areas, improving 3D MRI condition classification accuracy by 11% and 3D CT condition classification by 3% (absolute improvements). In whole slide pathology imaging, MedGemma 1.5 4B achieves a 47% macro F1 gain. Additionally, it improves anatomical localization with a 35% increase in Intersection over Union on chest X-rays and achieves a 4% macro accuracy for longitudinal (multi-timepoint) chest x-ray analysis. Beyond its improved multimodal performance over MedGemma 1, MedGemma 1.5 improves on text-based clinical knowledge and reasoning, improving by 5% on MedQA accuracy and 22% on EHRQA accuracy. It also achieves an average of 18% macro F1 on 4 different lab report information extraction datasets (EHR Datasets 2, 3, 4, and Mendeley Clinical Laboratory Test Reports). Taken together, MedGemma 1.5 serves as a robust, open resource for the community, designed as an improved foundation on which developers can create the next generation of medical AI systems. Resources and tutorials for building upon MedGemma 1.5 can be found at https://goo.gle/MedGemma.
Proof of Time: A Benchmark for Evaluating Scientific Idea Judgments
Large language models are increasingly being used to assess and forecast research ideas, yet we lack scalable ways to evaluate the quality of models' judgments about these scientific ideas. Towards this goal, we introduce PoT, a semi-verifiable benchmarking framework that links scientific idea judgments to downstream signals that become observable later (e.g., citations and shifts in researchers' agendas). PoT freezes a pre-cutoff snapshot of evidence in an offline sandbox and asks models to forecast post-cutoff outcomes, enabling verifiable evaluation when ground truth arrives, scalable benchmarking without exhaustive expert annotation, and analysis of human-model misalignment against signals such as peer-review awards. In addition, PoT provides a controlled testbed for agent-based research judgments that evaluate scientific ideas, comparing tool-using agents to non-agent baselines under prompt ablations and budget scaling. Across 30,000+ instances spanning four benchmark domains, we find that, compared with non-agent baselines, higher interaction budgets generally improve agent performance, while the benefit of tool use is strongly task-dependent. By combining time-partitioned, future-verifiable targets with an offline sandbox for tool use, PoT supports scalable evaluation of agents on future-facing scientific idea judgment tasks.