Harry Amad
Publications
OncoSynth: Synthetic data generation for treatment effect estimation in oncology
In oncology, access to patient-level data is often restricted. Synthetic data provides an alternative for analyzing treatment effectiveness, but existing methods for synthetic data generation fail to preserve the causal relationships between covariates, treatments, and outcomes, thereby leading to biased estimates of treatment effects. Here, we introduce OncoSynth, a generative, causally-aware machine learning framework designed to produce synthetic cohorts that enable accurate estimation of population- and patient-level treatment effects. OncoSynth uses a diffusion-based sequential approach to model how covariates influence treatment assignment and how treatment affects survival. We evaluate OncoSynth using large lung (N = 37,128) and breast cancer (N = 17,046) cohorts. Our results show that OncoSynth generates high-fidelity synthetic patient cohorts that preserve real-world patient, treatment, and outcome distributions. Notably, OncoSynth improves treatment effect estimation over existing approaches, by reducing population-level treatment effect error by up to 66%, and patient-level treatment effect error by up to 58%. Thereby, OncoSynth supports reliable evidence generation for precision oncology in settings where data sharing is restricted.
Hyperparameter Trajectory Inference with Conditional Lagrangian Optimal Transport
Neural networks (NNs) often have critical behavioural trade-offs that are set at design time with hyperparameters-such as reward weights in reinforcement learning or quantile targets in regression. Post-deployment, however, user preferences can evolve, making initial settings undesirable, necessitating potentially expensive retraining. To circumvent this, we introduce the task of Hyperparameter Trajectory Inference (HTI): to learn, from observed data, how a NN's conditional output distribution changes with its hyperparameters, and construct a surrogate model that approximates the NN at unobserved hyperparameter settings. HTI requires extending existing trajectory inference approaches to incorporate conditions, exacerbating the challenge of ensuring inferred paths are feasible. We propose an approach based on conditional Lagrangian optimal transport, jointly learning the Lagrangian function governing hyperparameter-induced dynamics along with the associated optimal transport maps and geodesics between observed marginals, which form the surrogate model. We incorporate inductive biases based on the manifold hypothesis and least-action principles into the learned Lagrangian, improving surrogate model feasibility. We empirically demonstrate that our approach reconstructs NN outputs across various hyperparameter spectra better than other alternatives.