S. Upadhyay
Publications
The Capability Frontier: Benchmarks Miss 82% of Model Performance
Existing benchmarks typically report accuracy for a single model on a single run. This systematically understates real-world LLM capabilities, particularly under heterogeneous data distributions: (i) different models get different questions correct according to their specializations, and (ii) given a budget, multiple generations can be sampled and selectively retained. To quantify this gap, we introduce the Capability Frontier: a Pareto frontier over a set of models that characterizes the best achievable performance at each cost level under optimal selection across models and generations (i.e., via an oracle). Our construction corrects for two opposing biases: underestimation from single-model evaluation and overestimation from taking maxima over noisy samples. We study 21 LLMs across 16 widely used benchmarks spanning coding, reasoning, medicine, factuality, instruction following, and agentic tasks, comparing Capability Frontier performance at matched cost to each benchmark's top-performing model. Correcting for single-model evaluation yields a 54% error rate reduction; additionally correcting for single runs yields an 82% improvement, with SOTA accuracy matched at 85% cost reduction. Complementing these empirical results, we use controlled probabilistic simulations to show that higher query topic entropy produces a near-monotonic increase in the performance gap between oracle routing and the best single model. Our findings suggest collective LLM capabilities are substantially underestimated, with implications for evaluation and deployment in data-heterogeneous, multi-domain settings.
Spectral Superposition: A Theory of Feature Geometry
Neural networks represent more features than they have dimensions via superposition, forcing features to share representational space. Current methods decompose activations into sparse linear features but discard geometric structure. We develop a theory for studying the geometric structre of features by analyzing the spectra (eigenvalues, eigenspaces, etc.) of weight derived matrices. In particular, we introduce the frame operator $F = WW^\top$, which gives us a spectral measure that describes how each feature allocates norm across eigenspaces. While previous tools could describe the pairwise interactions between features, spectral methods capture the global geometry (``how do all features interact?''). In toy models of superposition, we use this theory to prove that capacity saturation forces spectral localization: features collapse onto single eigenspaces, organize into tight frames, and admit discrete classification via association schemes, classifying all geometries from prior work (simplices, polygons, antiprisms). The spectral measure formalism applies to arbitrary weight matrices, enabling diagnosis of feature localization beyond toy settings. These results point toward a broader program: applying operator theory to interpretability.