Xingyu Lu
Publications
KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning
Cross-domain multimodal time series forecasting is a challenging task, requiring models to integrate precise numerical comprehension, cross-domain semantic understanding, and effective multimodal fusion. Existing approaches either build Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch or leverage pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs). However, TSFMs often overlook semantic understanding and lack the ability to perform future-oriented semantic reasoning, and LLMs struggle with numerical comprehension and accurate quantitative forecasting. To overcome these limitations, we propose KairosAgent, a novel agentic framework for multimodal time series forecasting, including an LLM-based reasoner and a TSFM-based forecaster. KairosAgent unifies textual reasoning and numerical forecasting by dynamically invoking analytical tools to enhance the numerical understanding and semantic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The reasoning results are subsequently fused into the TSFM pipeline, enabling more accurate and reliable future predictions. To further improve the reasoning, we curate a large-scale corpus of high-quality trajectories, alongside a reinforcement learning from forecasting paradigm with multi-turn refinement and turn-level credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that KairosAgent achieves superior zero-shot forecasting performance while maximizing the utility of pretrained LLMs and TSFMs, presenting a promising direction for efficient and interpretable time series agents. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/KairosAgent .
Does The Way You Plan Matter? An Empirical Study of Planning Representations for LLM Web Agents
Despite recent advances, LLM-based web agents still struggle with limited exploration, omission of critical steps, and sensitivity to task constraints. Prior work suggests that many of these failures stem from weaknesses in planning, yet the impact of alternative natural language plan representation remains unexplored. To address this, we introduce PlanAhead, a static planner-executor framework that evaluates the impact of plan representation in agent performance. We first automatically categorize WebArena tasks into 3 difficulty levels, enabling consistent difficulty grading without human annotation. Then we systematically evaluate 4 different plan representations on the tasks categorized as hard: sequential subgoals, narrative, pseudocode, and checklist; across different families of multimodal LLM powered agents (OpenAI, Alibaba, and Google). To account for stochastic variability, we introduce two novel evaluation metrics: Achievement Rate (AR) and Solved-Task Consistency (STC). Our results show that both, the plan formulation and the underlying LLM generating the plan, significantly influence web-agent robustness and task success.
OptSkills: Learning Generalizable Optimization Skills from Problem Archetypes via Cluster-Based Distillation
Leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to automatically formulate and solve optimization problems from natural language has emerged as an efficient paradigm for automated optimization. However, existing methods still exhibit limited generalization: they are sensitive to superficial narrative variations, reuse experience mainly at the case level, and struggle to adapt to shifted or emerging problem types. We propose OptSkills, an archetype-centric skill learning and reasoning agent system for optimization modeling and solving. To improve robust generalization, our system clusters problems by their underlying archetypes rather than surface narratives. To improve in-distribution generalization, it explores diverse modeling paradigms and solver configurations within each cluster, then distills successful trajectories into reusable workflow-level skills. To improve out-of-distribution generalization, it refines existing skills or expands the skill library using newly obtained trajectories. Our system achieves a state-of-the-art micro-averaged accuracy of 68.27% on datasets encompassing diverse problem types and scenarios. In addition, on MIPLIB-NL, a highly challenging large-scale and high-dimensional benchmark, it achieves 26.91% accuracy, outperforming DeepSeek-V3.2-Thinking by 4.53%. After skill learning on Nano-CO, it reaches 72.79% on the OOD NLCO benchmark. Code and skills are available at https://github.com/fujiwaranoM0kou/OptSkills.
VCap: Hypergeometric Rewards for Weak-to-Strong Visual Captioning
Visual captioning requires models to capture visual content faithfully while minimizing both omission and hallucination. As the dominant paradigm for captioning, MLLMs have achieved strong performance through scaling and high-quality data. Recently, RL has emerged as a key route to driving MLLMs toward higher precision and broader coverage, however, existing reward designs for captioning fail to provide fine-grained and reliable signals for factual verification, limiting their effectiveness. To address this, we propose VCap, a Witness-Adjudicator reward that pairs the reference caption (a witness) with the visual signal (an adjudicator). By explicitly verifying factual consistency between the reference and policy-generated captions grounded in the visual signal, VCap delivers a reward signal with hypergeometric-distribution-level precision for caption quality verification. This design enables effective learning even from imperfect references, facilitating weak-to-strong generalization in RL training. In our experiments, an 8B model trained with VCap outperforms open- and closed-source SOTA models on multiple image and video captioning benchmarks. Human evaluation further confirms its strong alignment with factual correctness. Additionally, VCap improves MLLM perceptual capability, generalizes across tasks, and surpasses best-of-N distillation, challenging prior assumptions about RLVR.
ContextRL: Enhancing MLLM's Knowledge Discovery Efficiency with Context-Augmented RL
We propose ContextRL, a novel framework that leverages context augmentation to overcome these bottlenecks. Specifically, to enhance Identifiability, we provide the reward model with full reference solutions as context, enabling fine-grained process verification to filter out false positives (samples with the right answer but low-quality reasoning process). To improve Reachability, we introduce a multi-turn sampling strategy where the reward model generates mistake reports for failed attempts, guiding the policy to "recover" correct responses from previously all-negative groups. Experimental results on 11 perception and reasoning benchmarks show that ContextRL significantly improves knowledge discovery efficiency. Notably, ContextRL enables the Qwen3-VL-8B model to achieve performance comparable to the 32B model, outperforming standard RLVR baselines by a large margin while effectively mitigating reward hacking. Our in-depth analysis reveals the significant potential of contextual information for improving reward model accuracy and document the widespread occurrence of reward hacking, offering valuable insights for future RLVR research.