Hao Li
Publications
Zero-Shot Statistical Downscaling via Diffusion Posterior Sampling
Conventional supervised climate downscaling struggles to generalize to Global Climate Models (GCMs) due to the lack of paired training data and inherent domain gaps relative to reanalysis. Meanwhile, current zero-shot methods suffer from physical inconsistencies and vanishing gradient issues under large scaling factors. We propose Zero-Shot Statistical Downscaling (ZSSD), a zero-shot framework that performs statistical downscaling without paired data during training. ZSSD leverages a Physics-Consistent Climate Prior learned from reanalysis data, conditioned on geophysical boundaries and temporal information to enforce physical validity. Furthermore, to enable robust inference across varying GCMs, we introduce Unified Coordinate Guidance. This strategy addresses the vanishing gradient problem in vanilla DPS and ensures consistency with large-scale fields. Results show that ZSSD significantly outperforms existing zero-shot baselines in 99th percentile errors and successfully reconstructs complex weather events, such as tropical cyclones, across heterogeneous GCMs.
Zero-Shot Statistical Downscaling via Diffusion Posterior Sampling
Conventional supervised climate downscaling struggles to generalize to Global Climate Models (GCMs) due to the lack of paired training data and inherent domain gaps relative to reanalysis. Meanwhile, current zero-shot methods suffer from physical inconsistencies and vanishing gradient issues under large scaling factors. We propose Zero-Shot Statistical Downscaling (ZSSD), a zero-shot framework that performs statistical downscaling without paired data during training. ZSSD leverages a Physics-Consistent Climate Prior learned from reanalysis data, conditioned on geophysical boundaries and temporal information to enforce physical validity. Furthermore, to enable robust inference across varying GCMs, we introduce Unified Coordinate Guidance. This strategy addresses the vanishing gradient problem in vanilla DPS and ensures consistency with large-scale fields. Results show that ZSSD significantly outperforms existing zero-shot baselines in 99th percentile errors and successfully reconstructs complex weather events, such as tropical cyclones, across heterogeneous GCMs.
Searth Transformer: A Transformer Architecture Incorporating Earth's Geospheric Physical Priors for Global Mid-Range Weather Forecasting
Accurate global medium-range weather forecasting is fundamental to Earth system science. Most existing Transformer-based forecasting models adopt vision-centric architectures that neglect the Earth's spherical geometry and zonal periodicity. In addition, conventional autoregressive training is computationally expensive and limits forecast horizons due to error accumulation. To address these challenges, we propose the Shifted Earth Transformer (Searth Transformer), a physics-informed architecture that incorporates zonal periodicity and meridional boundaries into window-based self-attention for physically consistent global information exchange. We further introduce a Relay Autoregressive (RAR) fine-tuning strategy that enables learning long-range atmospheric evolution under constrained memory and computational budgets. Based on these methods, we develop YanTian, a global medium-range weather forecasting model. YanTian achieves higher accuracy than the high-resolution forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and performs competitively with state-of-the-art AI models at one-degree resolution, while requiring roughly 200 times lower computational cost than standard autoregressive fine-tuning. Furthermore, YanTian attains a longer skillful forecast lead time for Z500 (10.3 days) than HRES (9 days). Beyond weather forecasting, this work establishes a robust algorithmic foundation for predictive modeling of complex global-scale geophysical circulation systems, offering new pathways for Earth system science.