D. Africa
Publications
Item Response Theory for AI Safety
Language models differ in how safely they behave and these differences are measured by safety benchmarks. But aggregated benchmark scores are hard to trust and interpret, because benchmarks duplicate one another, correlate heavily, and models may sandbag when they detect evaluation. To address these issues, we draw on Item Response Theory (IRT), a statistical toolkit for measuring these latents from performance on items with inferred psychometric properties. We fit IRT models to eight safety benchmarks across 192 language models, the largest psychometric analysis of LLM safety evaluations to date, and contribute three results. First, we find that three interpretable factors of refusal strictness, truthfulness, and contextual harm explain most of the variance between models across benchmarks. Second, psychometrically selected items recover full benchmark scores with lower error than random subsets of the same size, and roughly ten adaptively chosen items suffice for several individual benchmarks, cutting evaluation cost by 97-99%. Third, IRT supports audits of individual models, showing that it can be used to detect naive sandbagging and changes of model behind APIs. Overall, we show IRT is a ready-made toolkit for reading, reducing, and auditing safety benchmarks, which we recommend frontier labs and evaluators adopt.
Can AI agents conduct open-ended AI research? Early evidence from two case studies
Forecasts of explosive AI progress hinge on AI agents automating AI research. But evidence on whether agents can carry out open-ended AI research is thin. Current evaluations either test agents on narrow, verifiable tasks, which excludes open-ended research, or submit AI-generated papers to blind peer review, which is overstretched, stochastic, and suffers from poor review quality. We introduce a third way to measure progress towards AI R\&D automation. An agent takes on the central, open-ended research question of a high-quality unpublished paper, and the paper's original authors grade its output. We call these shadow evaluations. We ran shadow evaluations on two unpublished NeurIPS 2026 submissions, giving frontier agents six days and thousands of dollars of compute. The agents completed all of the engineering without human help, yet could not make substantial progress towards answering the research questions. As a result, both papers were unambiguously rejected by the authors. We identify five recurring failure modes: poor judgment about the bar for publishable research, uncreative responses to shortcomings in the research design, ineffective backtracking from dead ends, poor resource awareness, and instruction drift. A robustness check with a second model and scaffold reproduced these failures. We release the expert reviews, survey responses, agent repositories, and logs. Our results provide early evidence that today's agents can do the engineering of AI research, but struggle with critical parts of the research lifecycle.
Detecting CSAM Text-to-Image LoRAs From Weights
Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) fine-tuning has made it cheap and easy to customize open-weight image generation models for specific tasks, including the production of child sexual abuse material (CSAM). Existing moderation relies on metadata or generated outputs, but metadata can be deceptive and generating outputs may itself be unacceptable or illegal. We show that a safer signal lives in the weights. The top-left singular vectors of a LoRA's updates form a compact, inference-free fingerprint ($u_1$) of its strongest learned change. Using human-subject age as a benign proxy for CSAM, we find that $u_1$ identifies what a LoRA was trained on, generalizes across base models, and abstains on unrelated benign content. The signal is robust to additive weight noise, rescaling, and precision reduction. These results indicate that harmful LoRAs could be screened directly from their weights without relying on metadata or generating harmful outputs.
Consistency Training Along the Transformer Stack
Consistency training encourages models to behave similarly across different contexts, and has shown promise for reducing misalignment. We broaden the scope of consistency training in two ways. First, we introduce two new internal consistency targets: MLP Consistency Training (MLPCT), which matches post-activation MLP states, and Attention Consistency Training (AttCT), which matches per-head attention distributions. Second, we apply consistency training to four additional safety threats: persona in-context learning attacks, adversarial frustration, prefill attacks, and conditional misalignment. Across several models and threat settings, we find that consistency training reduces misalignment well beyond the sycophancy and jailbreak settings studied in prior work. We also find cases of cross-threat generalization, where training against one failure mode improves robustness to another, and identify a shared residual-stream mechanism underlying ACT, MLPCT, and AttCT, while distinguishing BCT as mechanistically distinct. Our results suggest that consistency training is a flexible and extensible framework for alignment, capable of unifying defenses against a broader class of model pathologies.
A Decision-Theoretic Formalisation of Steganography With Applications to LLM Monitoring
Large language models are beginning to show steganographic capabilities. Such capabilities could allow misaligned models to evade oversight mechanisms. Yet principled methods to detect and quantify such behaviours are lacking. Classical definitions of steganography, and detection methods based on them, require a known reference distribution of non-steganographic signals. For the case of steganographic reasoning in LLMs, knowing such a reference distribution is not feasible; this renders these approaches inapplicable. We propose an alternative, \textbf{decision-theoretic view of steganography}. Our central insight is that steganography creates an asymmetry in usable information between agents who can and cannot decode the hidden content (present within a steganographic signal), and this otherwise latent asymmetry can be inferred from the agents' observable actions. To formalise this perspective, we introduce generalised $\mathcal{V}$-information: a utilitarian framework for measuring the amount of usable information within some input. We use this to define the \textbf{steganographic gap} -- a measure that quantifies steganography by comparing the downstream utility of the steganographic signal to agents that can and cannot decode the hidden content. We empirically validate our formalism, and show that it can be used to detect, quantify, and mitigate steganographic reasoning in LLMs.
Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Self-Fulfilling (Mis)alignment
Pretraining corpora contain extensive discourse about AI systems, yet the causal influence of this discourse on downstream alignment remains poorly understood. If prevailing descriptions of AI behaviour are predominantly negative, LLMs may internalise corresponding behavioural priors, giving rise to self-fulfilling misalignment. This paper provides the first controlled study of this hypothesis by pretraining 6.9B-parameter LLMs with varying amounts of (mis)alignment discourse. We find that discussion of AI contributes to misalignment. Upsampling synthetic training documents about AI misalignment leads to a notable increase in misaligned behaviour. Conversely, upsampling documents about aligned behaviour reduces misalignment scores from 45% to 9%. We consider this evidence of self-fulfilling alignment. These effects are dampened, but persist through post-training. Our findings establish the study of how pretraining data shapes alignment priors, or alignment pretraining, as a complement to post-training. We recommend practitioners consider pretraining for alignment alongside capabilities. We share our models, data, and evaluations at AlignmentPretraining.ai.