T. J. Wieczorek
Publications
Calibrated Sampling-Free Uncertainty Estimation in Bayesian Deep Learning
Modern deep learning models remain notoriously prone to overconfidence, limiting their reliability in high-stakes applications. Bayesian methods aim to counter this by learning a distribution over model parameters, and recent advances now make this feasible for large-scale architectures at costs comparable to AdamW. However, a challenge remains at test time: predictions must be averaged across many forward passes with weights sampled from the posterior, which is prohibitively expensive. Variance propagation offers an efficient alternative, computing layer-wise analytical approximations of uncertainty in a single forward pass. While such techniques are effective for MLPs, their extension to modern architectures remains challenging, due to increased depth and diversity of layer types. To fill this gap, we propose Calibrated Variance Propagation (CVP), which introduces a new propagation method for normalization layers, combines it with recent techniques for handling activation functions, and absorbs residual error through a light calibration step. CVP yields comparably accurate uncertainty estimates to MC sampling across transformers and CNNs, at a fraction of the cost. Against prior variance propagation work, CVP improves coverage at $0.5\%$ risk from $8.2\%$ to $14.6\%$ with BEiT-3 on Visual Reasoning (NLVR2) and from $2.6\%$ to $10.8\%$ with ViLT on VQAv2, with gains extending to convolutional architectures.
Evaluating the Impact of Post-Training Quantization on Reliable VQA with Multimodal LLMs
Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLM) are increasingly deployed in domains where both reliability and efficiency are critical. However, current models remain overconfident, producing highly certain but incorrect answers. At the same time, their large size limits deployment on edge devices, necessitating compression. We study the intersection of these two challenges by analyzing how Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) compression affects both accuracy and reliability in Visual Question Answering (VQA). We evaluate two MLLMs, Qwen2-VL-7B and Idefics3-8B, quantized with data-free (HQQ) and data-aware (MBQ) methods across multiple bit widths. To counteract the reduction in reliability caused by quantization, we adapt the Selector confidence estimator for quantized multimodal settings and test its robustness across various quantization levels and out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. We find that PTQ degrades both accuracy and reliability. Data-aware methods soften the effect thereof. The Selector substantially mitigates the reliability impact. The combination of int4 MBQ and the Selector achieves the best efficiency-reliability trade-off, closing in on uncompressed performance at approx. 75% less memory demand. Overall, we present the first systematic study linking quantization and reliability in multimodal settings.