J. Leskovec
Publications
KumoRFM-2: Scaling Foundation Models for Relational Learning
We introduce KumoRFM-2, the next iteration of a pre-trained foundation model for relational data. KumoRFM-2 supports in-context learning as well as fine-tuning and is applicable to a wide range of predictive tasks. In contrast to tabular foundation models, KumoRFM-2 natively operates on relational data, processing one or more connected tables simultaneously without manual table flattening or target variable generation, all while preserving temporal consistency. KumoRFM-2 leverages a large corpus of synthetic and real-world data to pre-train across four axes: the row and column dimensions at the individual table level, and the foreign key and cross-sample dimensions at the database level. In contrast to its predecessor, KumoRFM-2 injects task information as early as possible, enabling sharper selection of task-relevant columns and improved robustness to noisy data. Through extensive experiments on 41 challenging benchmarks and analysis around expressivity and sensitivity, we demonstrate that KumoRFM-2 outperforms supervised and foundational approaches by up to 8%, while maintaining strong performance under extreme settings of cold start and noisy data. To our knowledge, this is the first time a few-shot foundation model has been shown to surpass supervised approaches on common benchmark tasks, with performance further improving upon fine-tuning. Finally, while KumoRFM-1 was limited to small-scale in-memory datasets, KumoRFM-2 scales to billion-scale relational datasets.
Predictive Query Language: A Domain-Specific Language for Predictive Modeling on Relational Databases
The purpose of predictive modeling on relational data is to predict future or missing values in a relational database, for example, future purchases of a user, risk of readmission of the patient, or the likelihood that a financial transaction is fraudulent. Typically powered by machine learning methods, predictive models are used in recommendations, financial fraud detection, supply chain optimization, and other systems, providing billions of predictions every day. However, training a machine learning model requires manual work to extract the required training examples - prediction entities and target labels - from the database, which is slow, laborious, and prone to mistakes. Here, we present the Predictive Query Language (PQL), an SQL-inspired declarative language for defining predictive tasks on relational databases. PQL allows specifying a predictive task in a single declarative query, enabling the automatic computation of training labels for a large variety of machine learning tasks, such as regression, classification, time-series forecasting, and recommender systems. PQL is already successfully integrated and used in a collection of use cases as part of a predictive AI platform. The versatility of the language can be demonstrated through its many ongoing use cases, including financial fraud, item recommendations, and workload prediction. We demonstrate its versatile design through two implementations; one for small-scale, low-latency use and one that can handle large-scale databases.
PluRel: Synthetic Data unlocks Scaling Laws for Relational Foundation Models
Relational Foundation Models (RFMs) facilitate data-driven decision-making by learning from complex multi-table databases. However, the diverse relational databases needed to train such models are rarely public due to privacy constraints. While there are methods to generate synthetic tabular data of arbitrary size, incorporating schema structure and primary--foreign key connectivity for multi-table generation remains challenging. Here we introduce PluRel, a framework to synthesize multi-tabular relational databases from scratch. In a step-by-step fashion, PluRel models (1) schemas with directed graphs, (2) inter-table primary-foreign key connectivity with bipartite graphs, and, (3) feature distributions in tables via conditional causal mechanisms. The design space across these stages supports the synthesis of a wide range of diverse databases, while being computationally lightweight. Using PluRel, we observe for the first time that (1) RFM pretraining loss exhibits power-law scaling with the number of synthetic databases and total pretraining tokens, (2) scaling the number of synthetic databases improves generalization to real databases, and (3) synthetic pretraining yields strong base models for continued pretraining on real databases. Overall, our framework and results position synthetic data scaling as a promising paradigm for RFMs.