Seonglae Cho
Publications
OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment
Large language models are increasingly used as decision aids whose probability judgments shape downstream choices. Whether those judgments carry a systematic directional tilt has been hard to detect: calibration metrics aggregate unsigned errors, and naturalistic uncertainty offers no ground-truth probability. When an LLM rates a startup's success at 70% but its failure at 15%, the missing 15 points expose a distortion no aggregate score flags. We introduce OptimismBench, which detects directional bias with inverted pairs: each scenario elicits both P(success) and P(failure), and asymmetry between the two framings yields a signed bias score without ground truth. Across 16 models from 8 providers, fourteen are optimistic; pessimism appears only in Anthropic's frontier tier. Eleven matched base-versus-chat pairs across four families show post-training sets the sign of the bias, with opposite shifts in different families. The pattern survives prompt, temperature, perspective, and self-debiasing ablations. A seventeen-model six-language comparison further shows model identity dominates language, with inter-model variance at 4.7x inter-language variance. We release 3,870 items across 10 languages for per-model directional-bias auditing. When alignment makes a model more helpful, it also tilts its probabilities; downstream pipelines inherit the tilt by default.
Tool Calling is Linearly Readable and Steerable in Language Models
When a tool-calling agent picks the wrong tool, the failure is invisible until execution: the email gets sent, the meeting gets missed. Probing 12 instruction-tuned models across Gemma 3, Qwen 3, Qwen 2.5, and Llama 3.1 (270M to 27B), we find the identity of the chosen tool is linearly readable and steerable inside the model. Adding the mean-difference between two tools' average internal activations switches which tool the model selects at 77-100% accuracy on name-only single-turn prompts (93-100% at 4B+), and the JSON arguments that follow autoregressively match the new tool's schema, so flipping the name is enough. The same per-tool means also flag likely errors before they happen: on Gemma 3 12B and 27B, queries where the gap between the top-1 and top-2 tool is smallest produce 14-21x more wrong calls than queries with the largest gap. The causal effect concentrates along one direction, the row of the output layer that produces the target tool's first token: a unit vector along it at matched magnitude already reaches 93-100%, while what is left over leaves the choice almost untouched. Activation patching localises this to a small set of mid- and late-layer attention heads, and a within-topic probe across 14 same-domain $τ$-bench airline tools reaches top-1 61-89% across five 4B-14B models, ruling out the reading that we are just moving the model along a topic axis. Even base models encode the right tool before they can emit it: cosine readout from the internal state recovers 69-82% on BFCL while base generation reaches only 2-10%, suggesting pretraining forms the representation and instruction tuning later wires it to the output. We measure tool identity selection and JSON schema correctness in single-turn fixed-menu settings; multi-turn agentic transfer is more fragile and is discussed in Limitations.
Control Reinforcement Learning: Interpretable Token-Level Steering of LLMs via Sparse Autoencoder Features
Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) decompose language model activations into interpretable features, but existing methods reveal only which features activate, not which change model outputs when amplified. We introduce Control Reinforcement Learning (CRL), which trains a policy to select SAE features for steering at each token, producing interpretable intervention logs: the learned policy identifies features that change model outputs when amplified. Adaptive Feature Masking encourages diverse feature discovery while preserving singlefeature interpretability. The framework yields new analysis capabilities: branch point tracking locates tokens where feature choice determines output correctness; critic trajectory analysis separates policy limitations from value estimation errors; layer-wise comparison reveals syntactic features in early layers and semantic features in later layers. On Gemma 2 2B across MMLU, BBQ, GSM8K, HarmBench, and XSTest, CRL achieves improvements while providing per-token intervention logs. These results establish learned feature steering as a mechanistic interpretability tool that complements static feature analysis with dynamic intervention probes
The Confidence Manifold: Geometric Structure of Correctness Representations in Language Models
When a language model asserts that "the capital of Australia is Sydney," does it know this is wrong? We characterize the geometry of correctness representations across 9 models from 5 architecture families. The structure is simple: the discriminative signal occupies 3-8 dimensions, performance degrades with additional dimensions, and no nonlinear classifier improves over linear separation. Centroid distance in the low-dimensional subspace matches trained probe performance (0.90 AUC), enabling few-shot detection: on GPT-2, 25 labeled examples achieve 89% of full-data accuracy. We validate causally through activation steering: the learned direction produces 10.9 percentage point changes in error rates while random directions show no effect. Internal probes achieve 0.80-0.97 AUC; output-based methods (P(True), semantic entropy) achieve only 0.44-0.64 AUC. The correctness signal exists internally but is not expressed in outputs. That centroid distance matches probe performance indicates class separation is a mean shift, making detection geometric rather than learned.