Marzieh Fadaee
Publications
CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models
Reasoning language models are increasingly asked not only to answer difficult questions, but also to estimate their likelihood of success. Existing methods typically elicit confidence only once: either before thinking or after answering. We argue that confidence in reasoning models is state-dependent: before thinking, confidence should estimate the chance of the model correctly solving the prompt, while after thinking it should predict whether the realized answer is likely to be correct. This distinction determines the appropriate supervision target: prompt-level success should supervise confidence estimates made after seeing the prompt, while individual answer-level correctness should supervise confidence estimates made after answering. We introduce CALIBER (Calibration Before and After Reasoning), which elicits both estimates and supervises each with the target matched to its information state. Under this unified protocol, CALIBER reduces Expected Calibration Error (ECE) by 52.5% over the strongest single-confidence baseline on BigMathDigits for the 7B model, while achieving the best Brier score and AUROC, and remains within 2.1 points of the best accuracy. Further, on a larger 30B model, CALIBER achieves the best ECE on BigMathDigits while remaining competitive in Brier score and AUROC. Out of distribution, it achieves the best ECE and Brier score on GPQA and TriviaQA, and remains competitive on SimpleQA. Ablations further show that this position-target alignment is most beneficial under distribution shift where it consistently reduces calibration error across all out-of-distribution benchmarks.
AI Exposure Scores: what they measure, what they miss, and what comes next
A set of exposure scores calculated in 2023 has become a central empirical input to the future of work debate. Produced by Eloundou et al. (2023) and referred to here as the GPTs are GPTs scores, they define exposure as the share of occupational tasks a large language model can assist with. This work is a genuine methodological contribution, but as the scores travel from the time and place they were produced, the limitations the authors named do not always travel with them. Two gaps have widened as a result. The first is structural, between what static exposure scores measure and what policy questions actually require. Taking the diffusion of these scores as a case study, we show how their temporal, geographic, and ontological limitations compound in policy-facing analyses, and we survey five families of research responding to these limits: dynamic and benchmark-based measures, ensemble methods, task-framework extensions, worker-centered metrics, and adoption and usage data. The second gap is the one we argue needs more attention: the coordination between researchers and policymakers. The policy-relevant work which ask who is harmed, who benefits, how, and when, continues to reference the static GPTs are GPTs scores without engagement with the methodological updates that would let these questions be answered more reliably. We then ask what additional steps towards navigating uncertainty remain: ex-post frameworks and the deliberate, political work of reimagining what futures are worthy of building towards are. Closing the research-policy gap is a shared task: policymakers must widen their evidence base, engage workers as epistemic partners, and shift from prediction to preparedness; researchers must build data infrastructure, adopt participatory methods, and write with policymakers in mind. Better measurement matters, but it will not close the second gap alone.
CIRCLE: A Framework for Evaluating AI from a Real-World Lens
This paper proposes CIRCLE, a six-stage, lifecycle-based framework to bridge the reality gap between model-centric performance metrics and AI's materialized outcomes in deployment. While existing frameworks like MLOps focus on system stability and benchmarks measure abstract capabilities, decision-makers outside the AI stack lack systematic evidence about the behavior of AI technologies under real-world user variability and constraints. CIRCLE operationalizes the Validation phase of TEVV (Test, Evaluation, Verification, and Validation) by formalizing the translation of stakeholder concerns outside the stack into measurable signals. Unlike participatory design, which often remains localized, or algorithmic audits, which are often retrospective, CIRCLE provides a structured, prospective protocol for linking context-sensitive qualitative insights to scalable quantitative metrics. By integrating methods such as field testing, red teaming, and longitudinal studies into a coordinated pipeline, CIRCLE produces systematic knowledge: evidence that is comparable across sites yet sensitive to local context. This can enable governance based on materialized downstream effects rather than theoretical capabilities.
Unlocking Reasoning Capability on Machine Translation in Large Language Models
Reasoning-oriented large language models (RLMs) achieve strong gains on tasks such as mathematics and coding by generating explicit intermediate reasoning. However, their impact on machine translation (MT) remains underexplored. We systematically evaluate several open- and closed-weights RLMs on the WMT24++ benchmark and find that enabling explicit reasoning consistently degrades translation quality across languages and models. Analysis reveals that MT reasoning traces are highly linear, lacking revision, self-correction and exploration of alternative translations, which limits their usefulness. Furthermore, injecting higher-quality reasoning traces from stronger models does not reliably improve weaker models' performance. To address this mismatch, we propose a structured reasoning framework tailored to translation, based on multi-step drafting, adequacy refinement, fluency improvement, and selective iterative revision. We curate a synthetic dataset of dynamic structured reasoning traces and post-train a large reasoning model on this data. Experiments show significant improvements over standard translation fine-tuning and injected generic reasoning baselines. Our findings demonstrate that reasoning must be task-structured to benefit MT.
SimMerge: Learning to Select Merge Operators from Similarity Signals
Model merging combines multiple models into a single model with aggregated capabilities, making it a powerful tool for large language model (LLM) development. However, scaling model merging is challenging: performance depends on the choice of merge operator, model subset, and merge order, often requiring expensive merge-and-evaluate searches. In this work, we introduce SimMerge, a predictive merge-selection method that identifies high-performing merges using inexpensive, task-agnostic similarity signals between models. Given a small set of unlabeled probes, SimMerge extracts functional and structural features to predict the performance of candidate two-way merges, enabling merge operator, order and model subset selection without iterative evaluation. We show that SimMerge consistently outperforms the best fixed merge operator across 7B-parameter LLMs and generalizes to multi-way merges and 111B-parameter LLMs without retraining. We further introduce a bandit variant that supports adding new tasks and operators online. Our results suggest that learning how to merge enables scalable model composition when checkpoint catalogs are large and evaluation budgets are limited.