Maxim Panov
Publications
Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent
LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to consult, or how many resources to invest. While the usefulness and feasibility of Bayesian approaches remain unclear for LLM inference, this position paper argues that the control layer of an agentic AI system (that orchestrates LLMs and tools) is a clear case where Bayesian principles should shine. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for agentic systems that can help to maintain beliefs over task-relevant latent quantities, to update these beliefs from observed agentic and human-AI interactions, and to choose actions. Making LLMs themselves explicitly Bayesian belief-updating engines remains computationally intensive and conceptually nontrivial as a general modeling target. In contrast, this paper argues that coherent decision-making requires Bayesian principles at the orchestration level of the agentic system, not necessarily the LLM agent parameters. This paper articulates practical properties for Bayesian control that fit modern agentic AI systems and human-AI collaboration, and provides concrete examples and design patterns to illustrate how calibrated beliefs and utility-aware policies can improve agentic AI orchestration.
Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Improving Factuality of Generations by Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) are prone to generating factually incorrect outputs. Recent work has applied conformal prediction to provide uncertainty estimates and statistical guarantees for the factuality of LLM generations. However, existing approaches are typically not prompt-adaptive, limiting their ability to capture input-dependent variability. As a result, they may filter out too few items (leading to over-coverage) or too many (under-coverage) for a given task or prompt. We propose an adaptive conformal prediction approach that extends conformal score transformation methods to LLMs, with applications to long-form generation and multiple-choice question answering. This enables prompt-dependent calibration, retaining marginal coverage guarantees while improving conditional coverage. In addition, the approach naturally supports selective prediction, allowing unreliable claims or answer choices to be filtered out in downstream applications. We evaluate our approach on multiple white-box models across diverse domains and show that it significantly outperforms existing baselines in terms of conditional coverage.
IDLM: Inverse-distilled Diffusion Language Models
Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have recently achieved strong results in text generation. However, their multi-step sampling leads to slow inference, limiting practical use. To address this, we extend Inverse Distillation, a technique originally developed to accelerate continuous diffusion models, to the discrete setting. Nonetheless, this extension introduces both theoretical and practical challenges. From a theoretical perspective, the inverse distillation objective lacks uniqueness guarantees, which may lead to suboptimal solutions. From a practical standpoint, backpropagation in the discrete space is non-trivial and often unstable. To overcome these challenges, we first provide a theoretical result demonstrating that our inverse formulation admits a unique solution, thereby ensuring valid optimization. We then introduce gradient-stable relaxations to support effective training. As a result, experiments on multiple DLMs show that our method, Inverse-distilled Diffusion Language Models (IDLM), reduces the number of inference steps by 4x-64x, while preserving the teacher model's entropy and generative perplexity.