Siddhartha Laghuvarapu
Publications
KMM-CP: Practical Conformal Prediction under Covariate Shift via Selective Kernel Mean Matching
Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an assumption often violated in practice due to distribution shift. Under covariate shift, restoring validity requires importance weighting, yet accurate density-ratio estimation becomes unstable when training and test distributions exhibit limited support overlap. We propose KMM-CP, a conformal prediction framework based on Kernel Mean Matching (KMM) for covariate-shift correction. We show that KMM directly controls the bias-variance components governing conformal coverage error by minimizing RKHS moment discrepancy under explicit weight constraints, and establish asymptotic coverage guarantees under mild conditions. We then introduce a selective extension that identifies regions of reliable support overlap and restricts conformal correction to this subset, further improving stability in low-overlap regimes. Experiments on molecular property prediction benchmarks with realistic distribution shifts show that KMM-CP reduces coverage gap by over 50% compared to existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/siddharthal/KMM-CP.
ConfHit: Conformal Generative Design with Oracle Free Guarantees
The success of deep generative models in scientific discovery requires not only the ability to generate novel candidates but also reliable guarantees that these candidates indeed satisfy desired properties. Recent conformal-prediction methods offer a path to such guarantees, but its application to generative modeling in drug discovery is limited by budget constraints, lack of oracle access, and distribution shift. To this end, we introduce ConfHit, a distribution-free framework that provides validity guarantees under these conditions. ConfHit formalizes two central questions: (i) Certification: whether a generated batch can be guaranteed to contain at least one hit with a user-specified confidence level, and (ii) Design: whether the generation can be refined to a compact set without weakening this guarantee. ConfHit leverages weighted exchangeability between historical and generated samples to eliminate the need for an experimental oracle, constructs multiple-sample density-ratio weighted conformal p-value to quantify statistical confidence in hits, and proposes a nested testing procedure to certify and refine candidate sets of multiple generated samples while maintaining statistical guarantees. Across representative generative molecule design tasks and a broad range of methods, ConfHit consistently delivers valid coverage guarantees at multiple confidence levels while maintaining compact certified sets, establishing a principled and reliable framework for generative modeling.
Making Conformal Predictors Robust in Healthcare Settings: a Case Study on EEG Classification
Quantifying uncertainty in clinical predictions is critical for high-stakes diagnosis tasks. Conformal prediction offers a principled approach by providing prediction sets with theoretical coverage guarantees. However, in practice, patient distribution shifts violate the i.i.d. assumptions underlying standard conformal methods, leading to poor coverage in healthcare settings. In this work, we evaluate several conformal prediction approaches on EEG seizure classification, a task with known distribution shift challenges and label uncertainty. We demonstrate that personalized calibration strategies can improve coverage by over 20 percentage points while maintaining comparable prediction set sizes. Our implementation is available via PyHealth, an open-source healthcare AI framework: https://github.com/sunlabuiuc/PyHealth.
PyHealth 2.0: A Comprehensive Open-Source Toolkit for Accessible and Reproducible Clinical Deep Learning
Difficulty replicating baselines, high computational costs, and required domain expertise create persistent barriers to clinical AI research. To address these challenges, we introduce PyHealth 2.0, an enhanced clinical deep learning toolkit that enables predictive modeling in as few as 7 lines of code. PyHealth 2.0 offers three key contributions: (1) a comprehensive toolkit addressing reproducibility and compatibility challenges by unifying 15+ datasets, 20+ clinical tasks, 25+ models, 5+ interpretability methods, and uncertainty quantification including conformal prediction within a single framework that supports diverse clinical data modalities - signals, imaging, and electronic health records - with translation of 5+ medical coding standards; (2) accessibility-focused design accommodating multimodal data and diverse computational resources with up to 39x faster processing and 20x lower memory usage, enabling work from 16GB laptops to production systems; and (3) an active open-source community of 400+ members lowering domain expertise barriers through extensive documentation, reproducible research contributions, and collaborations with academic health systems and industry partners, including multi-language support via RHealth. PyHealth 2.0 establishes an open-source foundation and community advancing accessible, reproducible healthcare AI. Available at pip install pyhealth.