Lijie Hu
Publications
Beyond Scalars: Evaluating and Understanding LLM Reasoning via Geometric Progress and Stability
Evaluating LLM reliability via scalar probabilities often fails to capture the structural dynamics of reasoning. We introduce TRACED, a framework that assesses reasoning quality through theoretically grounded geometric kinematics. By decomposing reasoning traces into Progress (displacement) and Stability (curvature), we reveal a distinct topological divergence: correct reasoning manifests as high-progress, stable trajectories, whereas hallucinations are characterized by low-progress, unstable patterns (stalled displacement with high curvature fluctuations). Leveraging these signatures, our probabilistic framework achieves competitive performance and superior robustness across diverse benchmarks. Crucially, TRACED bridges geometry and cognition by mapping high curvature to ''Hesitation Loops'' and displacement to ''Certainty Accumulation'', offering a physical lens to decode the internal dynamics of machine thought.
Predicting LLM Output Length via Entropy-Guided Representations
The long-tailed distribution of sequence lengths in LLM serving and reinforcement learning (RL) sampling causes significant computational waste due to excessive padding in batched inference. Existing methods rely on auxiliary models for static length prediction, but they incur high overhead, generalize poorly, and fail in stochastic "one-to-many" sampling scenarios. We introduce a lightweight framework that reuses the main model's internal hidden states for efficient length prediction. Our framework features two core components: 1) Entropy-Guided Token Pooling (EGTP), which uses on-the-fly activations and token entropy for highly accurate static prediction with negligible cost, and 2) Progressive Length Prediction (PLP), which dynamically estimates the remaining length at each decoding step to handle stochastic generation. To validate our approach, we build and release ForeLen, a comprehensive benchmark with long-sequence, Chain-of-Thought, and RL data. On ForeLen, EGTP achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, reducing MAE by 29.16\% over the best baseline. Integrating our methods with a length-aware scheduler yields significant end-to-end throughput gains. Our work provides a new technical and evaluation baseline for efficient LLM inference.
In-Run Data Shapley for Adam Optimizer
Reliable data attribution is essential for mitigating bias and reducing computational waste in modern machine learning, with the Shapley value serving as the theoretical gold standard. While recent "In-Run" methods bypass the prohibitive cost of retraining by estimating contributions dynamically, they heavily rely on the linear structure of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) and fail to capture the complex dynamics of adaptive optimizers like Adam. In this work, we demonstrate that data attribution is inherently optimizer-dependent: we show that SGD-based proxies diverge significantly from true contributions under Adam (Pearson $R \approx 0.11$), rendering them ineffective for modern training pipelines. To bridge this gap, we propose Adam-Aware In-Run Data Shapley. We derive a closed-form approximation that restores additivity by redefining utility under a fixed-state assumption and enable scalable computation via a novel Linearized Ghost Approximation. This technique linearizes the variance-dependent scaling term, allowing us to compute pairwise gradient dot-products without materializing per-sample gradients. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves near-perfect fidelity to ground-truth marginal contributions ($R > 0.99$) while retaining $\sim$95\% of standard training throughput. Furthermore, our Adam-aware attribution significantly outperforms SGD-based baselines in data attribution downstream tasks.