Zerui Cheng
Publications
TabularMath: Evaluating Computational Extrapolation in Tabular Learning via Program-Verified Synthesis
Standard tabular benchmarks mainly focus on the evaluation of a model's capability to interpolate values inside a data manifold, where models good at performing local statistical smoothing are rewarded. However, there exists a very large category of high-value tabular data, including financial modeling and physical simulations, which are generated based upon deterministic computational processes, as opposed to stochastic and noisy relationships. Therefore, we investigate if tabular models can provide an extension from statistical interpolation to computational extrapolation. We propose TabularMath, a diagnostic benchmark of 114 deterministic problems (233,472 rows) generated from verified programs based on GSM8K and AIME. We evaluate 9 tabular architectures and in-context learning (ICL) with GPT-OSS-120B. On standard regression metrics, TabPFN v2.5 performs remarkably well, achieving R^2=0.998 in-distribution and maintaining positive R^2 even under distribution shift, which is unique among the tabular models we tested. When we measure rounded consistency (exact integer match), a different picture emerges: TabPFN v2.5 drops below 10% on out-of-distribution data, while ICL maintains around 40%. This gap between R^2 and exact-match accuracy suggests that tabular models learn smooth function approximations but struggle to recover precise computational outputs under extrapolation. The two paradigms appear complementary: TabPFN scales efficiently with data; ICL achieves exact computation from few examples. We release all code and data to support further investigation.
VeRA: Verified Reasoning Data Augmentation at Scale
The main issue with most evaluation schemes today is their "static" nature: the same problems are reused repeatedly, allowing for memorization, format exploitation, and eventual saturation. To measure genuine AI progress, we need evaluation that is robust by construction, not by post-hoc detection. In response, we propose VeRA (Verified Reasoning Data Augmentation), a framework that converts benchmark problems into executable specifications, comprising (i) a natural language template with placeholder slots, (ii) a coherent generator that samples valid configurations, and (iii) a deterministic verifier that validates parameters and calculates the corresponding correct answers for each configuration. From a single seed problem, VeRA automatically creates unlimited verified variants with reliable labels at near-zero marginal cost without human involvement. VeRA operates in two complementary modes. VeRA-E (equivalent) rewrites problems while keeping the underlying logic intact, useful for detecting memorization versus genuine reasoning. VeRA-H (hardened) systematically increases complexity while remaining verifiable, enabling reliable creation and labelling of fresh difficult tasks at the boundary of intelligence. Evaluating 16 frontier models with VeRA, we find: (i) VeRA-E improves evaluation quality and reveals contamination patterns. (ii) VeRA-H enables human-free generation of hard tasks with reliable labels. (iii) VeRA establishes verified benchmarks as a general paradigm. VeRA reconceptualizes benchmarks from static objects used until exhausted, to executable specifications generating fresh, verified instances on demand, enhancing robustness and cost-effectiveness for evaluation. With VeRA, we envision that evaluation in any verifiable domain can scale indefinitely without sacrificing label integrity. To stimulate future research, we have open-sourced all code and datasets.
FutureX-Pro: Extending Future Prediction to High-Value Vertical Domains
Building upon FutureX, which established a live benchmark for general-purpose future prediction, this report introduces FutureX-Pro, including FutureX-Finance, FutureX-Retail, FutureX-PublicHealth, FutureX-NaturalDisaster, and FutureX-Search. These together form a specialized framework extending agentic future prediction to high-value vertical domains. While generalist agents demonstrate proficiency in open-domain search, their reliability in capital-intensive and safety-critical sectors remains under-explored. FutureX-Pro targets four economically and socially pivotal verticals: Finance, Retail, Public Health, and Natural Disaster. We benchmark agentic Large Language Models (LLMs) on entry-level yet foundational prediction tasks -- ranging from forecasting market indicators and supply chain demands to tracking epidemic trends and natural disasters. By adapting the contamination-free, live-evaluation pipeline of FutureX, we assess whether current State-of-the-Art (SOTA) agentic LLMs possess the domain grounding necessary for industrial deployment. Our findings reveal the performance gap between generalist reasoning and the precision required for high-value vertical applications.