Hui Cai
Publications
GeoReward: Mitigating Contextual Variable Overestimation in Vision-Language Models for Cross-Market Preference Prediction
Vision-language models excel in many multimodal tasks but remain prone to a subtle yet impactful failure mode: they tend to overestimate dominant visual-textual cues while underestimating sparse but decision-critical contextual variables. This issue, which we term Contextual Variable Overestimation (CVE), becomes particularly evident in real-world applications such as predicting advertisement image preferences across diverse geographic markets. For instance, when a VLM is asked to choose between two product images tailored for different countries, it often defaults to a consistent output, ignoring ground-truth regional variations. This collapse occurs because pervasive high-volume signals, such as product attributes and dense image patches, overwhelm the few but critical tokens that encode market-specific context. To address CVE, we first collect a new multimodal dataset of real advertising creatives and their click-through performance across multiple countries. We then introduce GeoReward, a reward model designed to predict ad image preferences across diverse geographic markets. GeoReward integrates three purpose-built mechanisms: (1) Market-Aware Retrieval Augmentation, (2) Context-Guided Visual Modulation, (3) Selective Sensitivity Loss. Furthermore, we demonstrate how GeoReward can guide the fine-tuning of RL for a VLM to generate background designs for text-to-image models, producing market-aware advertising creatives. Experiments validate that our framework mitigates CVE and outperforms existing baselines. This work not only diagnoses a systematic bias in VLMs toward dominant perceptual features but also delivers a targeted solution for applications where sparse contextual variables govern decision-making.
GAUGE: Grading Agent-Built Financial Models Without a Golden Answer
Financial models combine public disclosures with analyst assumptions to produce forecasts and valuations. While some components can be checked mechanically, forecasts, discount rates, and target prices often admit multiple reasonable answers. Existing benchmarks nevertheless tend to grade such outputs against a single expert reference. Using independently built analyst models for the same companies, we find that across 108 directed pairs covering 65 companies, the median single-reference score is 0.33, 92.6% score below 0.70, and no same-vintage pair agrees on implied price within 10%. Point-tolerance grading can therefore penalize disagreement already present among professionals. We introduce GAUGE, a benchmark for evaluating agent-built valuation models against observed analyst practice rather than a single point answer. GAUGE uses 1,001 vendor-classified analyst workbooks and a 196-task evaluation set, with a three-layer observed-practice envelope, 56 auditable facets, eight validity gates, and deterministic structural checks. We validate the benchmark with a 55-participant known-groups study, company-grouped cross-fitting, and judge-stability audits. On the failure-aware score $φ_0$, senior analysts average 88.3, juniors 66.0, and finance students 43.2. Across 24 agents and 1,011 scored generations, the best agent scores 53.4, above the student mean but below every senior and most juniors. It passes 93% of mechanical facets and 78% of judgment facets, with a fleet-median gap of 26 points. Current agents are substantially stronger at model construction than valuation judgment. We release the methodology, a gated de-identified data tier, a controlled training split, a versioned 48-task evaluation core, and a withheld refresh pool.