Shaopeng Liang
Publications
From Score Matrices to Football-Aware Match-State Simulation: An Auditable LLM Harness for Exact-Score Reranking
Football score forecasting combines a strong statistical core with a difficult contextual edge. Dynamic Poisson-family models estimate team strength, expected goals, and coherent score probabilities, but do not directly understand roles, tactical matchups, motivation, or how a first goal changes behaviour. Large language models (LLMs) can reason about such concepts, yet are not calibrated probability engines. We combine both components through an auditable information harness. This paper documents four iterations: V1, a dynamic score-driven Dixon-Coles baseline; V2, which maps LLM contextual ratings back into expected-goal parameters; V3, which replaces scalar correction with goal-by-goal simulations over a frozen score-candidate set; and V4, which adds shared first-breakthrough and post-goal cascade judgments, time-aware stopping, and deterministic tail candidates. The harness defines input semantics, supplies pre-match evidence, and constrains the LLM to an inspectable reasoning route. On a chronological replay of the first 150 matches of the 2025-26 English Premier League, V1 achieved 10.0% Top-1 and 26.7% Top-3 exact-score accuracy. V3 reached 12.0% and 30.0%, while V4 reached 14.7% and 30.7%. V4 increased candidate coverage from 77.3% to 84.7%, although no added tail candidate became a Top-3 exact hit. V1's native 1X2 distribution achieved 53.3% argmax accuracy, 0.9878 log loss, 0.5870 Brier score, and 0.2095 ranked probability score. These results are exploratory: the development slice is not an untouched benchmark, and temporal input isolation cannot exclude outcome memory in a closed LLM. The contribution is an auditable hybrid architecture, a clear design evolution, and negative findings showing where football-aware simulation does and does not improve score selection.
GALA: Generative Aligned Learning for Adaptive Multimodal Representation in the Taobao Shangou Recommender System
Modern recommender systems in food delivery increasingly leverage multimodal signals, including images, text, and user interaction histories, to enhance user experience, yet effective fusion of these heterogeneous modalities remains challenging, hindering both the joint modeling of multimodal signals and adaptation to evolving user intent. In mainstream two-stage approaches, the separation between content-semantic pretraining of image-text encoders and behavior-driven ranking models limits alignment between semantic understanding and user behavior patterns. To address these issues, we present GALA, a three-stage pipeline whose core innovation lies in an intermediate "generative RL alignment" stage that constructs multimodal pretraining data from user behavior and refines it via conversion-based rewards, effectively bridging the pretraining-fine-tuning gap to align with downstream objectives. GALA comprises three stages: first, behavior-aware triplet pretraining on query-image-text pairs from search logs to early capture user intent and content preferences; second, a novel intermediate stage that refines multimodal embeddings through reward-driven optimization (GRPO) to dynamically align them with user behavior and bridge the pretraining-fine-tuning gap; and finally, integration of multimodal and ID embeddings via adaptive gating with a hybrid loss, preserving multimodal contributions under long-term ID-dominant training. GALA has been deployed in the production environment at Taobao Shangou, serving over 200 million daily active users. Compared with state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, it delivers consistent offline gains of +0.12/+0.20 AUC along with better PCOC metrics. Large-scale online A/B tests further report a 0.55 percent increase in order volume, confirming GALA's effectiveness at industrial scale and its robustness across diverse demand patterns.